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January 18, 2011

China ends 2010 with GDP of US$6.1 trillion (39.8 trillion yuan)

China's GDP was 39.5 trillion yuan at the end of 2010

China's yuan ended 2010 at 6.59 to one US dollar

UPDATE : The National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday in Beijing that GDP rose to 39.7983 trillion yuan (about US$6.1 trillion), rising 10.3 percent over 2009.

China preliminary reporting is 9.9% GDP growth in 2010 and a projection of maintaining 10% growth in 2011. Other analysts are forecasting a slowdown to 8-9% GDP growth in 2011.



Previous Projected GDP by NBF:

Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP  US Growth 

2010e 38           10.5    6.65       5.71      5.3   14.6   2
2010N 39.8         10.3    6.59       6.1      6.3   14.6   2    
2011e 42            9.6    6.49       6.47      6.7   14.9   3.5       
2012 45             9      6          7.5       7.7   15.2   4.2
2013 49             9      5.6        8.7       8.9   15.5   4.2
2014 53             9      5.1       10.4      10.7   15.7   2.7
2015 58             9      4.7       12.3      12.6   16     2.7
2016 63             9      4.4       14.3      14.7   16.4   2.7       
2017 68             8      4         17.0      17.3   16.8   2.7 Past USA
2018 74             8      3.7       19.9      20.2   17.2   3
2019 80             8      3.4       23.5      23.8   17.6   3
2020 86             8      3         28.6      28.9   18.1   3
2021 93             8      3         30.9      31.2   18.7   3
2022 100            8      3         33.4      33.7   19.2   3
2023 108            8      3         36.0      36.3   19.8   3
2024 117            8      3         38.9      39.2   20.4   3
2025 126            8      3         42.0      42.3   21.0   3
2026 136            7      3         45.4      45.7   21.6   3
2027 146            7      3         48.6      48.9   22.3   3
2028 156            7      3         52.0      52.3   23.0   3
2029 167            7      3         55.6      55.9   23.6   3
2030 179            7      3         59.5      59.8   24.4   3

New Projected GDP by NBF:

Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP  US Growth 

2010N 39.5         10.5    6.59       6.1      6.3   14.6   2    
2011 44             9.6    6.2        7.2       7.4   14.9   3.5
2012 49             8.5    5.9        8.5       8.7   15.2   4.2
2013 55             8.5    5.6        9.8      10.1   15.5   4.2
2014 60             8.5    5.3       11.4      11.7   15.7   2.7
2015 66             8.5    5.0       13.2      13.5   16     2.7
2016 73             8      4.8       15.3      15.6   16.4   2.7 
2017 80             8      4.6       17.6      17.9   16.8   2.7 Past USA
2018 87             8      4.3       20        20     17.2   3
2019 95             8      4.1       23        23     17.6   3
2020 104            7.5    3.9       27        27     18.1   3
2021 113            7.5    3.7       30        31     18.7   3
2022 122            7.5    3.5       35        35     19.2   3
2023 133            7      3.4       40        40     19.8   3
2024 143            7      3.2       45        45     20.4   3
2025 154            7      3.0       51        51     21.0   3
2026 166            7      3         55        56     21.6   3
2027 178            7      3         59        60     22.3   3
2028 192            7      3         64        64     23.0   3
2029 206            7      3         69        69     23.6   3 
2030 222            7      3         74        74     24.4   3

There is an adjustment for the inflation differential of 5% which falls to 3% per year.

There will be a business and economic data coming from the 2010 chinese census. This will be reported in mid-2011. I would expect about 3-10% adjustment/restatement of GDP to come from the new data. I expect the adjustment will shift official estimates higher.

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