Electronic Liquid Crystal States Discovery hint at common mechanism for high-temperature superconductivity in two families

Schematic drawing of the surface reconstruction in Ca(CoxFe1-x)2As2. The circles indicate the As position, the gray lines indicate the surface reconstruction lines seen in the topographic images. For better visibility, we don't include possible surface dimerization (31) in this drawing. The black rectangle marks the orthorhombic unit cell with lattice parameters as reported by Ref. 32. The inset illustrates how the angle of the surface reconstruction changes relative to the Fe-Fe lattice from the tetragonal (right) to the orthorhombic phase (left). From Ref. 32, we calculate an angle of 90.5° or 89.5°, depending on the orientation of the a- and b-axis. This angle is exaggerated in the drawing for better visibility.


An international team lead by scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Center for Emergent Superconductivity, an Energy Frontier Research Center headquartered at DOE’s Brookhaven National Laboratory, has discovered evidence for ‘electronic liquid crystal’ states within the parent compound of one type of iron-based, high-temperature (high-Tc) superconductor.

“Because these findings appear similar to what we have observed in the parent state of cuprate superconductors, it suggests this could represent a common factor in the mechanism for high-Tc superconductivity in these two otherwise very different families of materials,” said team leader Séamus Davis, Director of the Center for Emergent Superconductivity at Brookhaven and the J.D. White Distinguished Professor of Physical Sciences at Cornell University. The team of scientists describes their findings, which may help elucidate that long-sought mechanism and lead to higher-temperature superconductors.

An important breakthrough was the capability demonstrated by the team to achieve atomically flat and perfectly debris-free surfaces for these studies. Without these conditions the spectroscopic imaging STM techniques cannot be applied. But as soon as the first large-scale images of the electronic arrangements were achieved, it became clear to the team that they were onto something very different than expected.

The scientists observed static, nanoscale arrangements of electrons measuring about eight times the distance between individual iron atoms, all aligned along one crystal axis reminiscent of the way molecules spatially order in a liquid crystal display. They also found that the electrons that are free to travel through the material do so in a direction perpendicular to these aligned ‘electronic liquid crystal’ states. This indicates that the electrons carrying the current are distinct from those apparently aligned in the electronic liquid crystals.

The next step will be to see how these conditions affect the superconductivity of the material when it is transformed to a superconductor.

“Then, if we’re able to relate our observations in the iron-based superconductors to what happens in cuprate superconductors, it may help us understand the overall mechanism for high-Tc superconductivity in all of these materials. That understanding could, in turn, help us to engineer new materials with improved superconducting properties for energy applications,” Davis said.

Science - Nematic Electronic Structure in the "Parent" State of the Iron-Based Superconductor Ca(Fe1–xCox)2As2

The mechanism of high-temperature superconductivity in the newly discovered iron-based superconductors is unresolved. We use spectroscopic imaging–scanning tunneling microscopy to study the electronic structure of a representative compound CaFe1.94Co0.06As2 in the "parent" state from which this superconductivity emerges. Static, unidirectional electronic nanostructures of dimension eight times the inter–iron-atom distance aFe-Fe and aligned along the crystal a axis are observed. In contrast, the delocalized electronic states detectable by quasiparticle interference imaging are dispersive along the b axis only and are consistent with a nematic 2 band with an apparent band folding having wave vector along the a axis. All these effects rotate through 90 degrees at orthorhombic twin boundaries, indicating that they are bulk properties. As none of these phenomena are expected merely due to crystal symmetry, underdoped ferropnictides may exhibit a more complex electronic nematic state than originally expected.

13 page pdf with supplemental information

Skiff E-Reader and Amazon Kindle DX

The Skiff Reader, the first e-reader to integrate the upcoming Skiff Service, is a state-of-the-art device that is simple and easy-to-use.

It features the largest and highest-resolution electronic-paper display yet unveiled in a consumer device, at 11.5" in size (measured diagonally) and a resolution of 1200 x 1600 pixels (UXGA). Skiff has signed a multi-year agreement with Sprint (NYSE:S) to provide 3G connectivity for Skiff’s dedicated e-reading devices in the United States. Plans are underway to have the Skiff Reader available for purchase later this year in more than 1,000 Sprint retail locations across the U.S., as well as online at www.sprint.com. Availability, pricing, additional distribution channels and other details will be disclosed at a later date. the Skiff Reader will also support wireless connectivity via Wi-Fi.

Innovations include:
* Largest e-paper display › More viewing area for a richer reading experience.
* Thinnest e-reading device › Remarkably sleek. Easy to hold, use and carry.
* Most durable e-reader › First-of-its-kind metal-foil display (eliminating the fragility of glass). A magnesium housing. An incredibly sturdy device.
* Highest display resolution › Four times as many pixels as most e-book readers, for more immersive reading.
* Full touch screen › For intuitive content selection and navigation. Instant page turns with the swipe of a finger.
* Extraordinary battery life › Read for a week between charges

2. Amazon has introduced Kindle DX with Global Wireless – a new version of the 9.7-inch wireless reading device now with the convenience of wireless content delivery in over 100 countries. The new Kindle DX with Global Wireless has a large 9.7-inch electronic paper display, auto-rotate capability and storage for up to 3,500 books. Kindle DX with Global Wireless is available for pre-order starting today for $489 at www.amazon.com/kindledx and ships January 19.

Matrix Movie Agent Smith Was 8% Right that Humans Are a Virus

Matrix movie quote:
Agent Smith: I'd like to share a revelation that I've had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species and I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed and the only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You're a plague and we are the cure.

Popular Science reports as much as eight percent of the human genome consists of viruses that inserted themselves into our DNA for replication, including the gene that causes schizophrenia.

Science Daily also has coverage

Human DNA has DNA from retroviruses and Bornavirus.

Wired Reports on the Bornavirus

Bornaviruses, a type of RNA virus that causes disease in horses and sheep, can insert their genetic material into human DNA and first did so at least 40 million years ago, the study shows. The findings, published January 7 in Nature, provide the first evidence that RNA viruses other than retroviruses (such as HIV) can stably integrate genes into host DNA. The new work may help reveal more about the evolution of RNA viruses as well as their mammalian hosts.

In the new study, Japanese researchers found copies of the bornavirus N (for nucleoprotein) gene inserted in at least four separate locations in the human genome. Searches of other mammalian genomes also showed that the gene has hitched rides in a wide variety of species for millions of years.

Nature - Endogenous non-retroviral RNA virus elements in mammalian genomes

Retroviruses are the only group of viruses known to have left a fossil record, in the form of endogenous proviruses, and approximately 8% of the human genome is made up of these elements. Although many other viruses, including non-retroviral RNA viruses, are known to generate DNA forms of their own genomes during replication none has been found as DNA in the germline of animals. Bornaviruses, a genus of non-segmented, negative-sense RNA virus, are unique among RNA viruses in that they establish persistent infection in the cell nucleus. Here we show that elements homologous to the nucleoprotein (N) gene of bornavirus exist in the genomes of several mammalian species, including humans, non-human primates, rodents and elephants. These sequences have been designated endogenous Borna-like N (EBLN) elements. Some of the primate EBLNs contain an intact open reading frame (ORF) and are expressed as mRNA. Phylogenetic analyses showed that EBLNs seem to have been generated by different insertional events in each specific animal family. Furthermore, the EBLN of a ground squirrel was formed by a recent integration event, whereas those in primates must have been formed more than 40 million years ago. We also show that the N mRNA of a current mammalian bornavirus, Borna disease virus (BDV), can form EBLN-like elements in the genomes of persistently infected cultured cells. Our results provide the first evidence for endogenization of non-retroviral virus-derived elements in mammalian genomes and give novel insights not only into generation of endogenous elements, but also into a role of bornavirus as a source of genetic novelty in its host.

15 page pdf with supplemental information

After 20 days of Release Avatar is the Number 2 Worldwide Box Office Movie

After 20 days of release. Avatar is the 2nd highest worldwide box office movie (non-inflation adjusted)

I have predicted Avatar will be the number one worldwide box office movie. Somewhat risky prediction. Counting on more "legs" in the foreign markets. Move up from the current 67% foreign to 72% or so. Avatar needs $550+ million domestic and $1.3+ billion foreign.

I am thinking $580 million domestic (with some Oscar boost later this year and not counting likely re-releases). An exceptionally strong and long Imax run could help push it to $650-700 million domestic. Foreign box office of $1.45-1.6 billion is my current guess. Thus about 20% chance of first $2 billion movie and 70% chance of beating Titanic for number one.

Expecting Titanic 3D re-release though.

IEEE Spectrum Selects Technology Winner and Losers Again

IEEE Spectrum is selecting technology winners and losers again

Spectrum predicted winners
* Google’s Chrome operating system
* Pixel Qi’s dual-mode screen provides both e-paper readability and full-color video.
* Intrinsity's hot-rodded processor gives cellphones PC smarts.
* IBM helps Russian Railways reinvent the railroad’s data infrastructure.
* NanoGaN’s gallium nitride substrates will help manufacturers make better lasers.

Spectrum predicted losers
* D-Wave Systems’ quantum computers won’t outperform ordinary ones. (I disagree)
* NanoUV’s extreme ultraviolet light source is revolutionary, but that won’t entice chipmakers to use it.
* Cellulosic ethanol— “grassoline”—is an environmental threat rather than a panacea.
* The Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid car is imaginative, daring, and superb, but uneconomical.
* Airport security screening will go a lot faster with a new biometric system that reads passengers’ minds.


Spectrum is very clear in declaring Dwave Systems Adiabatic Quantum Computer a loser

Spectrum: Bigger, costlier and slower than conventional computers and not quantum.

D-Wave believes it could beat today's best methods for approximating the solution to difficult optimization problems in financial engineering, logistics, machine learning, and bioinformatics, either by getting the same answer faster or getting a more exact solution.

David DiVincenzo, a leading quantum computing expert at IBM's T.J. Watson Research Center, in Yorktown Heights, N.Y., says that "there has yet to be an established methodology for how [adiabatic quantum computation] could function fault tolerantly," that is, with effective error correction.

Umesh Vazirani, a computer scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, says D-Wave hasn't taken into account the need to control the rate of the adiabatic process. "Running the adiabatic algorithm without this 'tuning' gives no speedup," he says.

"This will never work—if you define ‘never’ as ‘not in 20 years."—Robert W. Lucky

D-Wave's investors are happy with the company's progress. "Quite happy," says Steve Jurvetson, a director at Draper Fisher Jurvetson.

Hartmut Neven, a Google scientist who is using D-Wave's computer to design and test image-recognition algorithms, says the company is taking a "very sensible approach" and has "a very good chance at getting it to work."

Rose says the collaboration with Google shows that the company is tackling real-world problems, even if it's at the proof-of-concept level. "Our ultimate objective is to build systems with spectacular performance on these sorts of problems," he says.

IEEE Spectrum prediction will clearly be wrong if Dwave does succeed in scaling the system and solving real world problems (like Google image search) in the next five years. If it takes 20 years or longer or never then IEEE spectrum will be right.

Dupont Switchgrass Ethanol

IEEE Spectrum - David Schneider writes

That’s an enormous quantity of land—almost as much as the country now devotes to farming. And even if you covered all that land with switchgrass, it wouldn’t produce enough fuel to supply the country’s diesel trucks and buses, its jet aircraft, or the homes and businesses that use petroleum for heating fuel.

Carpeting the continent with enough switchgrass to displace all that petroleum use is theoretically possible—but it would be an environmental catastrophe on many counts.

Strict U.S. regulations may save forests from being replaced by fields of switchgrass, but elsewhere in the world trees would inevitably be chopped down, either to make way for biofuel feedstock or to grow the crops that switchgrass displaces elsewhere. For this reason alone, DDCE’s project is destined to be a loser, even if it one day proves a commercial success.

So how will this prediction get proven right ? Based on some journal articles that trash switchgrass ethanol now and in the future ? David Schneider sounds like he is saying yes they will do it and probably make a lot of money and me and some other people won't like it.

NanoGaN's substrates will grow better, cheaper lasers

Gallium nitride substrates haven't improved substantially, either, nor has the yield of the laser chips grown on those substrates. Clearly, the company that finds a way to make better growth platforms at lower prices will not only cash in for itself but also lift the entire industry.

A lot of big materials suppliers are in the race, but a dark horse called NanoGaN seems likely to win it. The company, a spin-out from the electrical engineering department of the University of Bath, in England, can make gallium nitride substrates of high quality—and what's more, it can recycle them, saving scarce and costly gallium.

The market analysis firms Strategy Analytics, Strategies Unlimited, and Yole Développement differ widely in their estimates of the current size of the market for gallium nitride substrates, from a low of $124 million to a high of $515 million, but all three firms agree that the rate of growth will average in the double digits over the next five years. If so, the market NanoGaN will be tapping into could be worth from $172 million to $800 million by 2013.

NanoGaN's substrate will do far more than provide a more efficient platform for the growth of the 5- to 8-milliwatt, 405-nanometer-wavelength lasers used to read discs in Blu-ray players and game consoles. It should also aid the production of much more powerful 150- to 200-mW violet lasers, which the industry needs for its next challenge: to read the four pairs of layers in a 200-gigabyte high-definition DVD. Future laser printers will use violet lasers instead of today's red ones, allowing them to double the print quality to 1200 dots per inch; a blue version of the lasers will still be used in tiny, portable color projectors.

Prediction translation (what I am hearing them say about ) - Gallium nitride substrates have to get a market of more than $172 million per year by 2013 and NanoGaN will not get more than 20% of that market.

NanoUV's unproven light source won't shine in the next-gen lithography market

According to Peter Choi, nanoUV’s president and director of technology, the source has two plasmas—a very hot, tiny one surrounded by a cylindrical one. The farther you move from the center, the cooler the outer plasma becomes, dropping to a positively brisk 10 000 kelvin at the rim. As the density increases, the index of refraction decreases, which means the EUV rays bend more at the edges than in the middle, thus converging on a point. The device requires more input power than the leading light source candidates, Choi says, but because it’s just a few centimeters long, hundreds of sources can be ”multiplexed” in a many-headed ”Hydra” pattern for greater output power and brightness.

”The question is: What are they going to do with the X-ray ’lightbulb’ when they perfect it? The real problem is the X-ray mask. The thin chrome of current masks cannot stop X-rays, and the thick quartz substrates do block them—hence the need for exotic masks. But the dimensional control and temperature coefficients are showstoppers for those masks.”

Prediction translation (what I am hearing them say about ) - This small company may not succeed with a new EUV light source and EUV lithography might not be the next big thing in 2013.

A lot of players and a lot of competing tech, so a very safe (trivial) prediction.

California State Assemblyman Chuck Devore Proposes Bill With New Oil Drilling and Tax Prepayments to Help Solve Budget Problems

This site had previously advocated using tax revenue from allowing oil drilling and new nuclear reactors to help solve California's budget problems. [This is repeated below]

California assemblyman Chuck Devore introduced a proposal that generates as much as $16 billion by 2011, enough to fill more than three-quarters of California's estimated $21 billion budget deficit. Chuck's proposal is based on allowing new oil drilling and tax prepayments .

DeVore's proposal creates an Interim Resources Management Board to consider bids for new oil leases within California's waters (within 3 miles of the coast) and imposes a 40% royalty on the value of the oil and gas at the time of extraction. The measure also provides an option allowing bidders to pre-pay royalties on the value of the oil at the time a bid is accepted by the IRMB at a 20% rate, creating an incentive for leaseholders who believe oil prices will increase to pay the state royalties immediately. In addition, the bill includes a prepayment option for existing onshore leaseholders through which they may lock in their current royalty rate, generally 15-25%, by paying the state royalties on the gas and oil's current market value.

"Allowing new offshore leases under this plan prevents cuts to education, public safety and other government services," added DeVore. "It is simply irresponsible to continue our energy dependence on the Middle East when we can not only provide more energy right here in California, but also repair the state's budget and economy."

With the estimated one billion barrels of oil off California's coast valued at approximately $70 a barrel, the state could see revenues of up to $14 billion if all new leaseholders chose the prepayment option. If only half of new leaseholders chose the prepayment option, the state could issue lease-revenue bonds for the remaining royalties. Combined with California's corporate tax rate of 8.84%, the added value of the oil and gas ensures that California could see as much as $16 billion in new revenue in the coming fiscal year.

Advances in slant drilling techniques allow oil and gas extraction to occur from the coast or from existing platforms. No new offshore platforms would need to be constructed to reach the new leases.

This is only to get the close coastal oil. There is more oil under deeper water, but those would require offshore platforms.

Chuck DeVore has raised over one million dollars in his campaign for the Senate seat of Barbara Boxer.

Unseating Boxer is not DeVore’s only battle on the road to the U.S. Senate. He must first face former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina in the June Republican primary.

Previous Discussion at Nextbigfuture on Using Energy Policy to Help Solve California Budget Issues

Below are Nextbigfuture ideas and data and not related to what Chuck Devore is proposing.


California is going through a state budget crisis and has been going through chronic and persistent budget problems for over a decade. California chooses not to use its offshore oil or develop more nuclear power. Some environmentalists will say that the oil and nuclear power would not be enough to solve the energy problems of the United States. However, this will show that California could get $5-10 billion per year of tax revenue from the development of 10 billion barrels of oil and 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Also, the development of nuclear energy could offset electricity purchases from out of state sources which can often be at spot prices. Each nuclear reactor could offset about $1 billion of electricity and natural gas purchases each year. California's budget gap is projected to be $40 billion over two years. The initial issuance of oil leases would provide immediate revenue to the state of one billion/year or more. The construction to build the oil rigs and nuclear plants would provide construction jobs, taxes and fees which would provide immediate benefits as the projects are being built and before oil is pumped or electricity is generated.

Does anyone believe that California will not need $10-20 billion/year in state tax revenue in ten years or that $2-5 billion/year of tax revenue over the next several years would not help a great deal?














Alaska made about $10 billion in oil revenues in 2008. They made about $5.6 billion in oil revenue in 2007.



















Alaska's oil resources is projected to be about 13 billion barrels of oil. California's offshore oil is of comparable scale.
















































California's state budget is projected to have a $14 billion shortfall for 2008-2009 and about $40 billion for 2009-2010.


California could choose to stop screwing up its finances by having a state energy policy that would have avoided its past financial problems and could still help fix its future financial problems.

The Tennessee Brown's Ferry nuclear plant saved 800 million for the TVA by helping avoid purchases of power on the spot market.

The current plan is for 33% of California's power to come from renewable energy at a build-up cost of $60 billion. For $28 billion or less the equivalent energy could be provide by new nuclear power. The nuclear power choice would save $32 billion.

T Pyxidis White Dwarf May Supernova in the Next Several Million Years

T Pyxidis is a binary star system in the constellation Pyxis at about 3260 light years from Earth. It contains a sun-like star and a white dwarf. The White dwarf might supernova in the next several million years.

Sion's team has reached the conclusion that T Pyxidis is about to go supernova (in this case, it would be a Type 1a supernova, destroying both stars).
During Sion's presentation, he was challenged by one of his peers in the audience, Prof. Alex Fillipenko from Berkeley Astronomy Department. Apparently Sion had possibly miscalculated the damage that could be caused by a T Pyxidis supernova.

It seems that Sion had used data for a far more deadly gamma-ray burst (GRB) exploding 3,260 light-years from Earth, not a supernova. T Pyxidis certainly isn't expected to produce a GRB. (Gamma-ray bursts are thought to only be generated by a massive star that has reached the end of its life as a Wolf-Rayet star collapsing under its own gravitational attraction.)

"A supernova would have to be 10 times closer [to Earth] to do the damage described," Ray informed me via email.

The scientists at the meeting were also highly dubious about Sion's estimate that the star could explode imminently.

Astronomy.com reports - A type Ia supernova (or "white dwarf supernova"), releases 10 million times more energy than a nova explosion, or is equivalent to 20 billion, billion, billion megatons of TNT.

Sion findings suggest the white dwarf, considered close to us by cosmic standards, could eventually go supernova. Gamma radiation emitted by the supernova could threaten the Earth with an energy equivalent to 1,000 simultaneous solar flares. The production of nitrous oxides in Earth's atmosphere by the gamma rays could completely destroy the ozone layer, astronomers said.

However, if others are right then the effect would be more like 1 to ten solar flares.

CES 2010 - Parrot AR Drone and Duck Hunt Extreme

The Parrot ARDrone is the first quadricopter that can be controlled by an iPhone or iPod Touch

* made of carbon fiber and PA66 plastic
* MEMS and video for intuitive piloting
* two cameras, wifi and video streaming
* image processing software for augmented reality
* 5 meters/sec or 18 km/hour
* 15 minute running time
* lithium polymer batteries
* 360-400 grams (a little less than one pound)



















Duck Hunt Extreme

China has 21.9 Gigawatts of Nuclear Power Under Construction and More Nuclear Plant Uprates

1.

According to statistics released by the National Energy Administration Jan. 6, 20 nuclear power plants were under construction at the end of 2009, with a total capacity of 21.92 million kW.

Construction started in 2009 were two 1.25 million kW nuclear power units in Sanmen, Zhejiang province, two 1.25 million kW nuclear power units in Haiyang, Shandong province and two 1.75 million kW nuclear power units in Taishan, Guangdong province.

China Nuclear Engineering Group and China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holding Corporation inked a 5.3-billion-yuan deal in Beijing for building eight nuclear power units on Dec. 23, 2009 This is the biggest project with the largest investment for nuclear power construction in China.

The agreement includes the installation of a nuclear island in Taishan, Guangdong province, the first and the most advanced Evolutionary Power Reactor (EPR) in China. Other projects include CPR units in Fujian, Guangdong and Guangdong provinces.

The signing of the agreement marks a new beginning of rapid, large and standard development of nuclear power construction in China.

2. Only two new nuclear power reactors began operation in 2009, although only four were closed. Work on 12 new units, however, signals serious growth for coming years.

More capacity additions from uprates of existing reactors around the world added 808 MWe in 2009, the end result being a net increase in nuclear capacity of 744 MWe to 372,671 MWe.

3. An increasing number of US utilities are opting to increase the generating capacities of their existing nuclear power reactors, creating a $25 billion market, according to the Shaw Group.

37 reactors out of the USA's total of 104 had already completed or were in the process of implementing power uprates. 67 American reactors could potentially be uprated. With the average cost of uprating a unit at $250-500 million, he put the value of this potential market at around $25 billion. Shaw noted that both Exelon and Entergy have announced plans to uprate some of their reactors. Total expected uprates over the next 5 years is about 4150 MWe of new nuclear capacity in the USA - almost as much as three or four new reactors could provide.

4. A new joint venture aims to commercialize Russian technology for small lead-cooled fast SVBR-100 reactors.

A prototype is required to prove design improvements since marine use and this should be ready by 2019. The companies' statement said their initial estimates show that large-scale production of SVBR-100s could bring down costs to the same level as for coal-fired generation.

The name SVBR-100 comes from the Russian 'Svintsovo-Vismutovyi Bystryi Reaktor' which means 'lead-bismuth fast reactor' and the electric generating capacity, 100 MWe.

It uses chemically inert heavy liquid metal coolant in a primary circuit entirely integrated into the reactor pressure vessel. The coolant increases from 345 °C to 495 °C on passage through the reactor core and this heat is transferred to a secondary circuit and used to drive a steam turbine. From a gross thermal power of 280 MWt the net output would be 100 MWe, although smaller models are also on the drawing board and the original submarine version produced 155 MWt.

The reactor unit would be factory assembled and shipped to site for installation inside a tank of water that would provide passive heat removal and radiation shielding. Uranium oxide enriched to 16.5% uranium-235 would be one fuelling option. Reloads would only be carried out every seven to eight years.

5. China's ambitious expansion of nuclear power capacity is driving huge growth in its domestic supply industry, with companies quickly diversifying into the sector.

The country has budgeted $65 billion for nuclear build, which hinges on replicating the Westinghouse-designed AP1000 reactor and the CPR-1000. The latter is based on technology purchased from France's Areva.

China's State Nuclear Power Technology Corporation and Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research and Design Institute are working on an AP1000-inspired reactor, a more powerful CAP-1400 (1400 MWe) which is set for construction starts in 2013. "The export potential of both reactors, and the earnings for China, as the IPR owner, would be significant," said Zhongmao Gu, a nuclear equipment specialist at China Institute of Atomic Energy.

China First Heavy Industries (YiZhong) in the northern steel-belt Heilongjiang province, is perhaps the market leader in equipment manufacturing. It produces pressure vessels and pressurisers for nuclear plants up to 1 GWe. It also makes forgings for steam generators as part of a $340 million expansion which could see it outputting five reactor sets per year by 2015.

200 GFlops of Processing and more in Toshiba 3D TV

Wired reports - Toshiba introduced its internet-connected Cell TV at CES

Powered by LED (KIRA2) backlighting, the 55- or 65-inch Cell TV features multiple eight-core 3.2-GHz processors. What does that mean? It’s 10 times faster than standard desktop computers and will have 143 times the processing power of today’s televisions, claims Toshiba. (peak 200 gigaflops)

The Cell TV includes a converter to make everything that’s normally 2-D on your screen — football games, videogames, Blu-ray movies and so on — pop out in 3-D when viewed through active shutter glasses. That’s where the processing power comes into play — frame-rate conversions and rendering.

The Cell TV gets even more intense. It also features a video camera, microphone and software for video conferencing over an internet connection. (Hello, George Jetson.) To get on the web, there’s an ethernet port and 802.11N Wi-Fi connectivity. Also, the Cell TV will have a software menu called Net TV Channels to download streaming content from Netflix, Vudu and other web-based video services. On top of that, the TV uses a technology called Net Super Resolution+ to reduce compression artifacts seen in web video content.

Toshiba has other specs of the Toshiba CELL REGZA 55X1 TV

* 5,000,000:1 contrast ratio
* a 1250cd/m² luminance
* a 512-zone LED array backlight
* a 240Hz refresh rate for super-smooth images
* 3TB of of integrated hard drive storage
* simultaneously record up to eight digital TV channels



In Japan it is selling for 1,000,000 yen ($11,107).







EETimes reports: Toshiba claims that more than 1,000 Cell TVs -- priced at about $10,000 per unit -- have been sold in Japan in about a month.

Second, as many leading TV manufacturers roll out 3-D TVs in the U.S., Toshiba needs "something" to differentiate its 3-D TV offerings, including new capabilities like on-the-fly 2-D to 3-D conversion.

Indeed, the pending U.S. models will feature a new set of functions with a specific emphasis on 3-D. These functions include not only converting multiple 3-D formats, but also converting incoming 2-D video signals (from broadcast or packaged media) into 3-D in "real time," the company claimed. Third, Toshiba said it isn't just testing the water with its Cell TVs, but will offer multiple models in the U.S. market. The U.S. models will come in three screen sizes this year: Genesis at 55 and 65 inches; and Illusion at 46-, 55-, and 65-inch screen sizes.

Samsung on Wednesday (Jan. 6) claimed that "a built-in video processor" inside its 3-D TV models will offer a similar conversion feature in order to offer "unlimited 3-D content" while the availability of 3-D TV broadcasts remain limited.

Exactly how "on-the-fly" conversion actually renders on a TV remains to be seen. Neither company offered a demonstration during separate press conferences.
The concept behind the conversion technique is using a Cell or other power processor to fill in blanks by creating two separate images -- one for each eye -- out of a single frame. Asked if there is any video content more suitable for such a real-time conversion, Toshiba's Uchiyama said, "Not really, but you do need sharper original content to begin with" for the process to work.

Processing power allows Toshiba's Cell TV to offer "super resolution" by generating missing high-frequency pixels, "net resolution+" technology that uses compression noise cancellation for Internet content and "auto view" features that adjust brightness and color temperature based on where the TV is located.

Biologist Develop New Microscope So Powerful It Will See Individual Molecules

The image shows the set-up of a new microscope so powerful it can allow researchers to see individual molecules. The picture was taken in the dark in order to better show two lasers (blue and green lights) going into the microscope at right. Photo credit: UMass Amherst

Jennifer Ross, a University of Massachusetts Amherst physicist, is building a new microscope that achieves super resolution, allowing scientists to see molecules 100 times smaller than are visible using traditional light microscopy.

They are developing a microscope incorporating two cutting-edge fluorescence techniques that give researchers the ability to observe and track individual protein molecules. UMass Amherst is the second university in the country to use one of these, called Stochastic Optical Reconstruction Microscopy (STORM).

Ross summarizes that both the Fluorescence Photoactivated and Localization Microscopy (FPALM) and STORM techniques that she and colleagues are perfecting should allow scientists to see individual molecules by exciting the fluorescent tags with a small amount of light. STORM uses slightly different dyes that can be “tuned” to tag specific molecules. By tagging different proteins with different fluorescent tags, scientists can also observe the dynamics of multiple proteins concurrently, not possible in first generation fluorescence microscopy.

The new microscope, to be built within the next year, will allow much greater precision in identifying objects—such as certain cellular proteins—by letting scientists see them individually and watch their movement in real time. Ross says this will aid virtually all scientific disciplines to help answer important questions from how neurons communicate with each other in the brain to which are the most efficient green energy sources.

Special fluorescent tags used with the new microscope will allow her to see individual molecules that control cell division—working in real time, in living cells. Seeing individual tubulins in their normal environment should give her better insight into how processes they control can go awry. This could contribute to researchers’ understanding of how uncontrolled cell growth can lead to cancer.

Until now, observing individual proteins has involved isolating these proteins from the cells in which they operate. But observing a single molecule plucked out of its natural environment means normal interactions and behaviors are lost. “That’s not how the cell really is,” says Ross.

The first generation of fluorescence proteins (which recently earned discoverers a Nobel Prize) helped to solve this problem by allowing scientists some ability to watch marked proteins interact in real time inside cells. But when many molecules are fluorescently tagged inside a cell, the amount of light they emit prevents observers from seeing what individual proteins are doing because they all fluoresce at once, creating a glare. Tagging all similar proteins in a cell yields an image that’s too blurry to provide useful data.

The new tagging technique used with the microscope solves this problem by adding a “light switch” that allows the researcher to control the fluorescent marker. Instead of being on constantly, fluorescent tags can be individually selected to turn on using small amounts of purple light, allowing each protein to be seen individually. As the physicist explains, when only a small amount of light is used, it acts as a particle rather than a wave and excites only one fluorescently tagged molecule at a time.

Further, fluorescence from these proteins only lasts a few seconds and then goes dark. Another small set of proteins can be turned on with more purple light. Used in this way, the new, more precise microscope can then create a map of the individual proteins, which is captured on a high resolution camera.

The new microscope also solves another major problem associated with the first generation of light microscopes: Images are so blurry that molecules often appear to be 50 times their actual size. This results from the large amount of fluorescence that each tagged protein emits—researchers can’t distinguish between the real object and the fuzzy patch of light that surrounds it. The effect on investigators is much like asking for directions to a particular office and being told only what building it’s in, Ross explains—without an exact location, the answer is not helpful.

The new fluorescence techniques take advantage of the fact that the brightest light emitted by the objects will come from their centers. Ross and colleagues developed a mathematical formula that can fit the shape of a single molecule’s light intensity pattern. This allows a computer to locate the protein’s center within 20 billionths of a meter instead of 200, making the object appear much more like actual size.

Status of Robotics, Automation and Process Change

1. Redbox video kiosks and Netflix are putting the double hammer to Blockbuster and other video rental stores.

This and reduction in checkout jobs with more self-check out services at Supermarkets, hardware stores are examples of how "robotics" [actually process changes] are impacting the job market, which was discussed by Marshall Brain.

Struggling Blockbuster was previously aiming to shut 410 to 450 of its most unprofitable stores this year and next. A series of "accelerated closures" brings that target to 810 to 960.

Blockbuster also said it might convert an additional 250 to 300 locations to outlets that focus on used DVDs. That means 1,060 to 1,260 of Blockbuster's stores will probably be shut down or transformed by next year.

There are 4,356 Blockbuster locations throughout the country, meaning 24% to 29% could be closed or altered within 16 months.

About 18% of Blockbuster's stores are unprofitable, and 47% are only mildly profitable, according to the filing. A core 35% of the company's locations provide 80% of its retail profit.

The video rental market is about 15,000 stores that are or were employing about 100,000 people (mostly part time). Netflix and Redbox still have people employed directly and indirectly (but fewer). The money that people save by using netflix and Redbox does go to other uses and the volume of movie rentals increases.

Netflix has 11 million subscribers

Marshall talked about pilots losing their jobs with automatically flown airplanes. This is not likely to happen for a long time even though the piloting of a commercial jet has been mostly automated. Slow changing regulations, legal liability and insurance liability will prevent this from occuring. Also, there is the public perception issue. How many people, especially older people would choose the robotic airline over the regular pilot airline. Also, the amount of operational efficiency and cost saving by automating pilots is less than having more efficient overall operations like Southwest Airlines.

The healthcare and education industry continues to create jobs

USA Today reports on Moody's Economy.com has forecasted U.S. job growth by geographic region and by industry.



Retail and wholesale trade and service sectors are still forecasting some job growth.





2. iRobot Corporation has announced it achieved a milestone in the home robot market with its home robot sales exceeding five million units.

Hollywood Video and other video rental stores are similarly impacted. Say about 15,000 total video rental stores with 100,000 mostly part time jobs.

The specially-designed technology and suspension also allows Roomba to maneuver over cords and extract itself from rug fringe and tassels. It is also possible to set Roomba to clean on a schedule and automatically return to its home base after finishing cleaning or when its battery is running low.

Roomba also detects dirtier areas and will respond by increasing vacuuming intensity and cleaning pattern. This ensures deeper, concentrated cleaning in that area. The spinning side brush also enables cleaning of corners and along edges and automatically adjusts from hard floors to carpets and avoids stairs and drop-offs.

The pricing for the Roomba 400 Series starts at $129.99 with the Roomba 500 Series - which incorporates iRobot’s advanced coverage and cleaning technology - starting at $279.99.

Florida Bitter technology increase the magnetic field 10-15% without increasing stress on the coils

Resistive magnets are built in-house at the magnet lab using so-called Florida Bitter technology pioneered by researchers there. Circular plates of copper sheet metal are stamped with cooling holes; insulators with the same pattern are placed between the plates and stacked to make a coil. Voltage is then run across the coil and current flows to make a magnetic field in the center. Because of the limits of available materials (both to conduct current and to minimize stress on the coils), engineers were stuck at 35 tesla for about four years.

But magnet lab engineers discovered that by adjusting the stacking pattern of the Bitter plates, they could increase the magnetic field without increasing stress on the coils. This cost-neutral modification means a higher magnetic field can be created using the same amount of power, 20 megawatts. By comparison, the magnet at the Grenoble High Magnetic Field Laboratory achieves its 35 tesla using 22.5 megawatts of power.

Jingping Chen, manager of the resistive magnet program at the magnet lab, said the upgrade of the magnet is just a start, and that major upgrades are planned for many of the resistive magnets at the laboratory.

"We believe this magnet has the potential to reach even higher fields," Chen said. "We plan to upgrade our other 35-tesla magnet this year as well. And our wider-bore, 31-tesla magnets will be upgraded to around 33 tesla — which will be a new record in the 50-millimeter (1.97-inch) category."

High-performance transistors based on silicon–germanium nanowires

High-performance transistors based on silicon–germanium nanowires can be made using an approach compatible with existing mass-production techniques

A new type of nanowire that can be fabricated using conventional manufacturing techniques has been reported by researchers from the A*STAR Institute of Microelectronics and the Institute of Materials Research and Engineering in collaboration with colleagues from the National University of Singapore1. The key to their success is a core/shell structure in which a silicon–germanium core is sheathed by a silicon outer layer to form the nanowire.

The research team showed that the composite nanowires perform better in transistor structures than silicon alone. Silicon and germanium combined have better charge-carrier mobility than silicon, although the many charge-carrier traps that form at the interfaces between the different materials in silicon–germanium transistors have previously made it difficult to exploit this advantage. To avoid this problem, the researchers added an outer coating of silicon to the nanowires .

The core/shell nanowires were created using vacuum-deposition techniques that are fully compatible with current methods for the industrial fabrication of transistors. Importantly, the researchers used bulk silicon substrates, which are much cheaper and more readily available than the more specialized silicon-on-oxide substrates used previously for the fabrication of silicon–germanium transistors. The different layers are deposited and shaped using patterning and etching techniques, with the 12 nm-wide silicon–germanium core and 4 nm-thick silicon shell formed directly on the substrate.

The silicon–germanium nanowire transistors compared very well with silicon-only devices fabricated using the same process. The drive currents achievable by the transistors containing germanium were higher by 15%. The researchers attributed this improvement to the compressive strain in the nanowires caused by their position in the devices, which modifies their electronic structure. The intrinsically higher charge mobility in silicon–germanium also plays a part. “It would be difficult to decouple the two effects,” says Dim-Lee Kwong, one of the A*STAR members on the research team.

The researchers also found evidence of two types of conduction. When the gate voltage—the voltage that controls the amount of current flowing through the device—is low, conduction occurs through the silicon–germanium core alone as a result of quantum well formation in the core due to the smaller band gap of silicon–germanium compared to silicon. At higher gate voltages, with inversion at the wire surface, a combined conduction from both the silicon shell and the quantum well of the silicon–germanium core is observed, Kwong explains.

“The achievement of our transistors on bulk silicon instead of silicon-on-oxide is expected to carry the additional advantage of better heat dissipation,” says Kwong. “In the future, further improvements in the performance are expected by increasing the germanium concentration in the silicon–germanium core.”

Electron Device Letters, IEEE - Omega-Gate p-MOSFET With Nanowirelike SiGe/Si Core/Shell Channel

We demonstrated, for the first time, p-MOSFETs (LG ges 40 nm) with SiGe/Si core/shell channel integrated on bulk Si using a CMOS-compatible top-down processes. The Omega-shaped nanowire (NW)-like channels comprised of ~12-nm-thick inner SiGe core and 4-nm-thick outer Si shell. The devices exhibited good subthreshold characteristics (with SS ~128 mV/dec), suggesting successful surface passivation of the SiGe NW body by the outer Si capping layer. Drive currents of ~167 muA/mum is achieved, which is 15% enhancement over the reference Si-channel devices fabricated by the same process. Double gm peaks are observed at low drain bias for the core/shell SiGe NW devices, confirming the quantum confinement of holes in the SiGe inner core.

Nanodragster shows progress to Better Molecular Machines

Previously nanocars were created and now there is a somewhat faster nanodragster. The Nanodragster operates at lower temperatures and rolls more easily. It was created by James Tour and his research colleagues.

The synthesis and imaging by scanning tunneling microscopy of a mixed wheeled nanovehicle composed of a p-carborane small-wheeled short front axle and a C60 large-wheeled long rear axle that has been termed a nanodragster due to the structural relation to a dragster are reported. This nanodragster is expected to exhibit motion at a lower temperature than pure C60-wheeled nanocars and should allow the investigation of the role played by p-carborane wheels in directional motion.

28 page pdf with supplemental information on Molecular Machinery: Synthesis of a "Nanodragster"

General Synthetic Methods. 1H NMR and 13C NMR spectra were recorded at 400 and 500 MHz, respectively, on a Bruker Avance 400 and Avance 500 spectrometer. Proton chemical shifts (δ) are reported in ppm downfield from tetramethylsilane (TMS). Mass spectroscopy was performed at the Rice University Mass Spectrometry Laboratory or at the University of South Carolina Mass Spectrometry Laboratory. IR spectra were obtained on a Nicolet Avatar 360 FTIR. All Reagent grade tetrahydrofuran (THF) and diethyl ether (Et2O) were distilled under nitrogen over sodium benzophenone ketyl. Triethylamine and CH2Cl2 were distilled over CaH2 under nitrogen unless otherwise stated. THF and triethylamine were well-degassed with a stream of argon for 1 h before being used in the Castro-Stephens-Sonogashira coupling. All other reagents were purchased from commercial suppliers and used without further purification. Trimethylsilylacetylene (TMSA) was donated by FAR Research Inc. or Petra Research Inc. Flash chromatography was carried out using silica gel (230-400 mesh from EM science). Thin layer chromatography (TLC) was carried out on glass plates coated with silica gel 40 F254 purchased from EM Science. All reactions were conducted under a dry oxygen-free atmosphere using oven-dried glassware unless otherwise stated. PdCl2(PPh3)2,1 2,2 33, 73 and 92 were prepared using literature procedures.

* General Procedure for the Coupling of a Terminal Alkyne with an Aryl Halide Using a Palladium-Catalyzed Sonogashira Coupling.

* General procedure for the removal of TMS/TIPS protecting groups.

* Spectra for Compounds

Graphene for Ultrafast Photonics and Telecommunications

Nanowerks has a spotlight on the work of Dingyuan Tang from Nanyang Technological University and Professor Kian Ping Loh from National University of Singapore with the first breakthrough in using few-layer graphene as a saturable absorber for the mode locking of lasers.

Graphene can be used for telecommunications applications and that its weak and universal optical response might be turned into advantages for ultrafast photonics applications.

The addition of a layering structure could tune graphene’s electronics properties, thus influencing its photonics nature as well as its saturable absorption property.

Graphene’s tunable photonic property will guarantee graphene with brilliant photonic applications given that the ability to extensively control and tune materials' properties is now at the center of modern photonics.

The chemical modification of graphene could bring completely new physics.

It is envisaged that many new photonic properties of graphene will be discovered, and new concepts on graphene based ultra-fast photonic devices will emerge. It definitely paves the way to graphene based ultra-fast photonics applications for ultra-fast micro-processing, bio-medical, sensing, military and telecommunications systems.

Large energy mode locking of an erbium-doped fiber laser with atomic layer graphene (6 page pdf)

We have demonstrated large energy mode locking of an erbium-doped fiber laser with atomic layer graphene as the saturable absorber. Stable mode locked pulses with single pulse energy as high as 7.5nJ and 415 fs pulse width have been generated. Our experimental results shown that atomic layer graphene could be a promising saturable absorber for high power laser mode locking.

Starting from the laser mode locking threshold, the output power increased linearly with the pump power with a slope efficiency of 6.7%. The maximum achieved single pulse energy is as high as ~7.3 nJ. To the best of our knowledge, this is the highest pulse energy reported for ultrafast erbium doped fiber lasers mode locked with a real saturable absorber in cavity. At the maximum output power, the pulse width is ~415fs, which gives the maximum peak power of 17.6 kW.

Atomic-Layer Graphene as a Saturable Absorber for Ultrafast Pulsed Lasers

The optical conductance of monolayer graphene is defined solely by the fine structure constant, = (where e is the electron charge, is Dirac's constant and c is the speed of light). The absorbance has been predicted to be independent of frequency. In principle, the interband optical absorption in zero-gap graphene could be saturated readily under strong excitation due to Pauli blocking. Here, use of atomic layer graphene as saturable absorber in a mode-locked fiber laser for the generation of ultrashort soliton pulses (756 fs) at the telecommunication band is demonstrated. The modulation depth can be tuned in a wide range from 66.5% to 6.2% by varying the graphene thickness. These results suggest that ultrathin graphene films are potentially useful as optical elements in fiber lasers. Graphene as a laser mode locker can have many merits such as lower saturation intensity, ultrafast recovery time, tunable modulation depth, and wideband tunability.

Large energy soliton erbium-doped fiber laser with a graphene-polymer composite mode locker

Due to its unique electronic property and the Pauli blocking principle, atomic layer graphene possesses wavelength-independent ultrafast saturable absorption, which can be exploited for the ultrafast photonics application. Through chemical functionalization, a graphene-polymer nanocomposite membrane was fabricated and first used to mode lock a fiber laser. Stable mode locked solitons with 3 nJ pulse energy, 700 fs pulse width at the 1590 nm wavelength have been directly generated from the laser. We show that graphene-polymer nanocomposites could be an attractive saturable absorber for high power fiber laser mode locking

Dark pulse emission of a fiber laser

We report on the dark pulse emission of an all-normal dispersion erbium-doped fiber laser with a polarizer in cavity. We found experimentally that apart from the bright pulse emission, under appropriate conditions the fiber laser could also emit single or multiple dark pulses. Based on numerical simulations we interpret the dark pulse formation in the laser as a result of dark soliton shaping.

Han Zhang web page

China Thinktank Floats Yuan Revaluation idea and a Forecast of $123 trillion for China s Economy in 2040

1. WSJ - A prominent Chinese think tank on Wednesday said now is a good time for a 10% revaluation of the yuan as it warned the world's third-largest economy is at risk of asset bubbles and overheating this year.

The comments, in an essay by a researcher at the Institute of World Economic and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, run counter to top leaders' frequent defense of the government's current yuan policy of gradual reform and resistance to international pressure for currency appreciation.

The one-off appreciation should be made before the yuan can float in a wider band, Zhang said. Calling for a "more reasonable" yuan exchange rate, he said the Chinese unit should be allowed to rise or fall as much as 3% annually against the U.S. dollar.

In another essay presented by the institute during the seminar, researchers called on China to adopt a tighter monetary policy.

They said if Beijing's fiscal and monetary stimulus policies remain unchanged from last year, the domestic economy will grow 16% in 2010 and risk overheating. If the stimulus is fully withdrawn, GDP would grow 7.7% this year, but if the stimulus policies were kept at "an appropriate magnitude" the economy would grow 11.6%, they said.

2. In 30 years the Chinese economy "will reach US$123 trillion," writes Robert Fogel, a Nobel laureate in economics and professor at the University of Chicago, in an article in the January issue of Foreign Policy magazine.

In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country in 2040. Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth, according to my forecasts, China's share of global GDP -- 40 percent -- will dwarf that of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent) 30 years from now.

It's the same story with the relative decline of a Europe plagued by falling fertility as its era of global economic clout finally ends. Here, too, the trajectory will be more sudden and stark than most reporting suggests. Europe's low birthrate and its muted consumerism mean its contribution to global GDP will tumble to a quarter of its current share within 30 years. At that point, the economy of the 15 earliest EU countries combined will be an eighth the size of China's.

The first essential factor that is often overlooked: the enormous investment China is making in education.

I [Robert Fogel] estimate that China's rapid urbanization, which shifts workers to industry and services, added 3 percentage points to the annual national growth rate.) However, productivity is increasing even for those who remain in rural areas. In 2009, about 55 percent of China's population, or 700 million people, still lived in the countryside. That large rural sector is responsible for about a third of Chinese economic growth today, and it will not disappear in the next 30 years.

Third, though it's a common refrain that Chinese data are flawed or deliberately inflated in key ways, Chinese statisticians may well be underestimating economic progress. This is especially true in the service sector because small firms often don't report their numbers to the government and officials often fail to adequately account for improvements in the quality of output.

Fourth, and most surprising to some, the Chinese political system is likely not what you think. Although outside observers often assume that Beijing is always at the helm, most economic reforms, including the most successful ones, have been locally driven and overseen.

Finally, people don't give enough credit to China's long-repressed consumerist tendencies. In many ways, China is the most capitalist country in the world right now. In the big Chinese cities, living standards and per capita income are at the level of countries the World Bank would deem "high middle income," already higher, for example, than that of the Czech Republic.

[Describes Europes expected economic decline because of demography and lifestyle choice.]

An unexpected technological breakthrough could also shake things up, though this isn't the sort of thing economists can base predictions on.

Fogel's opinion on urbanization contributing 3% to GDP growth and statistics underestimating economic progress are in agreement with my previous postings on China's economy.

The technological breakthroughs shaking things up is this websites focus. Nuclear fusion and advanced nanotechnology and better AI, lasers and quantum computing will shake things up. But China is positioning to capitilize on all of those as well.


My last forecast for China's economy was here. Extending out to 2040 would get to about 360 trillion yuan which would be in the range of US$123 trillion.

Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP  US Growth 
2007 25.8          13      7.3        3.5       3.7   13.8   1.1      Past Germany
2008 31.4           9.6    6.85       4.6       4.8   14.3  -3.1    
2009 34.2           8.9    6.83       5.0       5.2   13.9   0.7      Passing Japan
2010 37.6          10      6.5        5.8       6.0   14.0   1.5      Past Japan
2011 41.0           9      6.0        6.8       7.0   14.2   1.9
2012 44.7           9      5.6        8.0       8.2   14.4   2.1
2013 48.7           9      5.1        9.6       9.8   14.7   3
2014 53.1           9      4.7       11.3      11.5   15.2   3
2015 57.9           9      4.2       13.8      14.0   15.6   3
2016 63.1           9      3.8       16.6      16.8   16.1   3        Past USA
2017 68.1           8      3.5       19.5      19.7   16.6   3
2018 73.6           8      3.2       23        23.2   17.1   3
2019 79.5           8      3         26.5      26.8   17.6   3
2020 86             8      3         28.6      28.9   18.1   3
2021 93             8      3         30.9      31.2   18.7   3
2022 100            8      3         33.4      33.7   19.2   3
2023 108            8      3         36.0      36.3   19.8   3
2024 117            8      3         38.9      39.2   20.4   3
2025 126            8      3         42.0      42.3   21.0   3
2026 136            7      3         45.4      45.7   21.6   3
2027 146            7      3         48.6      48.9   22.3   3
2028 156            7      3         52.0      52.3   23.0   3
2029 167            7      3         55.6      55.9   23.6   3
2030 179            7      3         59.5      59.8   24.4   3

Reviewing Kurzweil Predictions from 1999 for 2009

Michael Anissimov notes that Ray Kurzweil had several predictions from 1999 for 2009 and those predictions are in general wrong.

UPDATE: Wikipedia has a more comprehensive list of Ray Kurzweil predictions. Many of those predictions were mostly correct and Ray's trend tracking and projections are more accurate than most projections.

1. Personal computers with high resolution interface embedded in clothing and jewelry, networked in Body LAN’s.

2. The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) software.

3. Computer displays built into eyeglasses project the images directly onto the user’s retinas.

4. In terms of circuitry, three-dimensional chips are commonly used.

5. Translating Telephone technology is commonly used for many language pairs.

6. Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices. Many of these flying weapons are the size of small birds, or smaller.

7. Intelligent roads are in use, primarily for long-distance travel. Once your car’s computer guidance system locks onto the control sensors on one of these highways, you can sit back and relax

UPDATE: Here is an online review by Ray Kurzweil from the end of 2008 where Ray gives his own spin on his old predictions

I agree with the idea of accountability of predictions. Here is an analysis of specifically where things stand as regards to each of the predictions, so as to retroactively write what a correct prediction would be and rewrite better predictions and determine What will or will not happen/ why or why not and when and how.






1. Personal computers with high resolution interface embedded in clothing and jewelry, networked in Body LAN’s.

This prediction has problems with the personal computer definition and high defintion display aspect. The way it is phrased then it looks like it has be some kind of OLED flex display and a modular computer device. Even when we can do both, then would the interfaces and interaction be to wear the display and the devices ?

This should be possible in 5-8 years if the OLED roadmap is correct. Wearable electronics exist now. My sister has a memory card earring. Roadblocks - Fundamentally not very useful design for a wearable high def display, perhaps has some fad potential. The high def display is showing something to other people. Picoprojectors are about half the volume of an iphone. A high res version of that makes sense and could shrink and be made wearable. A thick bracelet/watchband attachment would work now. Issue is to get the power usage down and battery or other power up or wireless power.

Easily carried - belt clips etc… make sense. As part of clothing ? antennas that need to be big and flat and solar cells etc… yes. but some devices makes no sense in that configuration.

2. The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) software.

This needs the human inputted text caveat. Don’t think it ever happens. the Majority of spoken words could be recorded and CSRd for easier search but typing can be more straightforward for most purposes. I do not see that much value in automatic dictation. The technical inconveniences and inaccuracies should be overcome and it will be done more but I do not see behavior changing that much for using it. Reading lips and subvocalizations would be better so that an alternate form of quiet entry could be used when a keypad is not good for the form factor.

The new Google Nexus One phone lets you talk to fill in search boxes. So speech recog is getting bigger and bigger but the "majority of text"? What generates the majority of text now ? Probably not human input. So if we are only talking human generated text then maybe at some date in the future.

3. Computer displays built into eyeglasses project the images directly onto the user’s retinas.

Computer displays on eyeglasses exist, but are rare. Mostly a few military users.

Again not as useful as some would think. Even if this was a currently available option, seems like a niche product. Overlaying virtual reality via smart display contact lenses etc… Needs more reasons/applications to drive adoption.

4. In terms of circuitry, three-dimensional chips are commonly used.

3D chips are around the question is what is meant by “common”

The first 3-D integrated DRAM memories being shipped (2009): we (Memory Applications, Packaging & Integration Trends 2009 report) estimate that about 20,000 wafers of DRAM memory will be shipped with 3D TSV by the end of 2009, with production moving forward to higher volumes in 2010. By 2013, we expect that telecom and computing industries will drive more than 70% of the volume for 3-D TSV integrated memories.

Silicon through Vias started to emerge in 2007

There is stacked DRAM (3d)

Stacked flash and other stacked cmos is on the way

ADVANCED PACKAGING: 3D IC, WLP & TSV : 3D TSV Interconnects - Devices & Systems 2008 Report : the Equipment Market for 3D-TSV manufacturing tools will rapidly expand above $1 billion by 2013.

The semiconductor market is over $200 billion worldwide.

Gartner expects revenue in the global DRAM industry to increase by 25% next year to US$29.1 billion. Citigroup estimates global memory-chip capital spending will more than double next year to about $14.8 billion as companies upgrade their technology at existing manufacturing facilities. The $1 billion equipment market for 3D-TSV in 2013 might be 5% of a $20 billion semiconductor memory equipment market.

5. Translating Telephone technology is commonly used for many language pairs.

Translating Telephone technology is commonly used for many language pairs.

How often would I need to talk to someone when we did not already speak the same language ? How did I get their phone number ? How often are human translators used ? There are the devices for helping soldiers get out foreign phrases in war zones.


6. Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices. Many of these flying weapons are the size of small birds, or smaller.

The airforce has completed weaponizing the WASP UAV. It is the size of a falcon. Article from Wired is on my site. so bird size UAVs yes. “Dominate warefare” prediction standard, well that standard could take decades to shift from AK47s and bombs

Pakistan operations are using a lot of UAVs.

WW2 dominated by tank combat and propellor planes and aircraft carriers

Vietnam by helicopters, B52s, and bombs

Iraq War 2 was starting to go towards special forces and lighter warfare under Rumsfeld but that was discredited. Now the trend is to MRAPs. There is UAV and UGV supplementation.

The culture in the Airforce, Army, Marines and Navy and procurement skews toward traditional systems. the active wars and financial drain is putting most funds to resupplying bombs, bullets, making more body armor and MRAP variants. Slightly lighter MRAPs for afghan mountains. Long term procurement contracts still have new fighters and big ships etc…

Hopefully the US and other militaries will not have the reason to actually get efficient. Things stay mainly economic competition instead of shooting wars.

7. Intelligent roads are in use, primarily for long-distance travel. Once your car’s computer guidance system locks onto the control sensors on one of these highways, you can sit back and relax

Some automatic parking, roadtrains - follow a skilled driver with smart control is being developed in Europe and if things go smooth could be deployed in 2020 timeframe. Making highways smart is a lot of infrastructure refresh and will take a lot of testing and development to make sure it works. Years of operation of a smart test section of highway. Then small scale trials. Need to make sure it is foolproof or the lawsuits … Some semi-smart roads would be useful and less challenging. Do not see any deployments of sensors and devices for driver and car assistance. careful and phased deployments need to happen. Masdar City will have automatically driven pods. (about 2015 for a whole city.) More use of robotic vehicles in very large warehouses and factories. there are large controlled grounds where robotic driving can occur first with less challenging conditions. Airports for towing planes. Robotic driving should be done but my hurry up plans and the plans that I see will take many years/decades before any national scale deployments. Phasing in to city centers makes more sense.

Molecular worm algorithm efficiently searches large amount of potential chemical interactions

This figure shows a molecular worm representing a butane molecule as it navigates through the chemical labyrinth of a typical alkane-cracking zeolite. The alogorithm was used to compute the shortest path for the butane molecule to traverse one unit of the periodic zeolite structure. (Image courtesy of Maciej Haranczyk)

With the passage of a molecule through the labyrinth of a chemical system being so critical to catalysis and other important chemical processes, computer simulations are frequently used to model potential molecule/labyrinth interactions. In the past, such simulations have been expensive and time-consuming to carry out, but now researchers with the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have developed a new algorithm that should make future simulations easier and faster to compute, and yield much more accurate results.

“There are 190 zeolite structures known to exist today, but they constitute only a very small fraction of the 2.5 million structures that are feasible on theoretical grounds,” Haranczyk says. “The development of a database of hypothetical zeolite structures has long been regarded as an important step toward designer catalysts as it could, in principle, be screened for zeolites of any property. However, brute-force screening of all possible zeolite structures through molecular dynamics characterization is computationally infeasible, hence the need for rapid triaging based on an initial analysis of various properties.”

The successful testing of the molecular worm algorithm on a typical alkane-cracking zeolite opens an immediate door to its use in screening for new zeolites as well as a wide variety of other porous materials. The algorithm should also prove valuable in the search for materials that can capture carbon emissions before they enter the atmosphere. With further refinements, it could also one day be applied to proteins, especially enzymes.

A key to the success of this new algorithm was its departure from the traditional treatment of molecules as hard spheres with fixed radii. Instead, Haranczyk and Sethian constructed “molecular worms” from blocks connected by flexible links. These molecular worms provide a more realistic depiction of a molecule’s geometry, thereby providing a more accurate picture of how that molecule will navigate through a given chemical labyrinth, as Sethian explains.

“In practice, most molecules of interest, even the simplest solvents or gases, rarely have a spherical shape, and treating molecules as such may lead to errors,” he says. “Our molecular worms are able to change shape during the traversing of a chemical labyrinth, which allows them to reach areas not accessible to either a single large spherical probe or a rigid real-shape probe. This significantly extends the range of probes and structures that can be efficiently examined.”

As a molecule navigates through a chemical system, its access to a particular site or place within that system determines the extent to which catalysis and other chemical reactions may occur. Many of these critical sites are either buried in clefts, pockets or hidden cavities, or else represent channel systems. The accessible volume of a chemical system – the free volume available to a penetrating molecule – is also critical to the system’s physical properties, including diffusion, viscosity and electrical conductivity. Predicting whether a molecule will be able to traverse through a given chemical labyrinth is the first question that a simulation must answer, followed by identifying the shortest transverse route, finding the largest probe that can transverse though the system, and calculating accessible volume.

Haranczyk, looking to automate the process by which the void spaces of porous materials are analyzed, had an idea for a probe that would walk through the inside a material and map it. Sethian had been working on mathematic techniques that can be used in robotic navigations and path planning, as well as a host of algorithms for computing geometries in complex settings.

“What’s exciting here is to bring together two disparate worlds to build a new technology” says Sethian.

PNAS: Navigating molecular worms inside chemical labyrinths

Predicting whether a molecule can traverse chemical labyrinths of channels, tunnels, and buried cavities usually requires performing computationally intensive molecular dynamics simulations. Often one wants to screen molecules to identify ones that can pass through a given chemical labyrinth or screen chemical labyrinths to identify those that allow a given molecule to pass. Because it is impractical to test each molecule/labyrinth pair using computationally expensive methods, faster, approximate methods are used to prune possibilities, “triaging” the ability of a proposed molecule to pass through the given chemical labyrinth. Most pruning methods estimate chemical accessibility solely on geometry, treating atoms or groups of atoms as hard spheres with appropriate radii. Here, we explore geometric configurations for a moving “molecular worm,” which replaces spherical probes and is assembled from solid blocks connected by flexible links. The key is to extend the fast marching method, which is an ordered upwind one-pass Dijkstra-like method to compute optimal paths by efficiently solving an associated Eikonal equation for the cost function. First, we build a suitable cost function associated with each possible configuration, and second, we construct an algorithm that works in ensuing high-dimensional configuration space: at least seven dimensions are required to account for translational, rotational, and internal degrees of freedom. We demonstrate the algorithm to study shortest paths, compute accessible volume, and derive information on topology of the accessible part of a chemical labyrinth. As a model example, we consider an alkane molecule in a porous material, which is relevant to designing catalysts for oil processing.