December 07, 2010

World Economic Trends through 2100 and Quadrillion dollar economies

Currently the world economy is $74 trillion on a purchasing power parity basis. the IMF is forecasting about 6% per year growth through 2015 for a world economy of $99 trillion.

Goldman Sachs has projected a world economy of over $200 trillion in 2050

Robert Fogel, nobel prize winning economist has projected China to have 123 trillion GDP in 2040 China's share of global GDP -- 40 percent -- will dwarf that of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent) 30 years from now. So the World economy he is projecting is $307 trillion in 2040.

A world economy ten times larger will be a quadrillion dollar economy. Inflation and using future dollars will accelerate that milestone.

Increasing growth every 20 years
Year    flat 6% 6-11%   6-18%
2015    100     100     100    (trillions of dollars, World GDP PPP)
2020    134     134     134  
2030    241     241     241    2.5 times energy
                               30K per cap  
2040    431     474     571    3-4 times energy
                               50-70K per cap 
2050    770     940    1390    5-10 times
                               80K-140K per cap 
2060    1380   2000    4300    10-20 times energy
                               140K-430K per cap
2070    2500   4500   13700    15-40 times energy
                               250k-1.37 Million per cap
2080    4400  11600   56000    20-80 times energy
                               440K-5.6 M per cap  
2090    8000  30000  230000    35-200 times energy
                               800K-23 M percap     

2100   14000  86000 1200000    60-500 times energy
                               1.4M - 120 Million per cap

Up through 2040-2060 the gains to the world economy come from some continued growth in the developed countries and China, India, South east asia, and other countries catching up. The per capita assumes that world population grows to about 10 billion and then stays flat.

55 quadrillion for the world economy is roughly the level of a Kardashev level one civilization.

Assuming energy intensity of 10 megajoules/todays dollar and 10 billion people for a Kardashev level one civilization would mean $5.5 million dollars per person per year. Energy usage would be 55 terajoules per person (15.28 million kwh, 100 GW at 90% capacity factor produces about 800 billion kwh. 1.9 megawatts to generate the 15.28 million kwh)

The highest growth rate path on the table (increasing 3% growth rate every 20 years, 6% for 2010-2030, 9% for 2030-2050, 12% for 2050-2070, 15% for 2070-2090 and 18% for 2090-2100). It would be an economy 12000 times larger than in 2015. Assuming increased energy efficiency relative to GDP generation, I am assuming they will only need about 500 to 1000 times more energy. This would need less than the energy of Kardashev level one. 2* 10 ^16 watts. Kardashev one is about 100 Petawatts (10^17 watts).

The higher growth rate assumes some level of technological advancements like that suggested in the growth modes theory of Robin Hanson.

Additive manufacturing used in a big way starting in 2030 for things like 3D printing of entire airplanes (and buildings).

A continuing robotics revolution with success from companies like Heartland robotics

Getting one city GDP enhancement effects from high speed rail, robotic cars and other transportation improvements and productivity boosts from more efficient cities.

A yottawatt civilization would be roughly equivalent to a Kardashev 1.75 civilization. It would have one billion times more energy than Kardshev level one. This level of energy requires factory mass produced nuclear fusion or nuclear fission.

Cheap and abundant and clean energy would be required.

Various technology and economic successes described in the Mundane Singularity scenario would be required.

The Wealthy of 2100 will be different from the Wealthy of 2010

William Randolph Hearst was one of the richest men in 1903. He had 28 newspapers read by 20 million people (did not reach that level until 1925). He also had big property. Hearst Castle, but did not own that land until 1919 (construction from 1919-1947).

A more modest modern approximation would still be a multi-millionaire. Someone with a bunch of popular blogs or websites to reach 5 million (lower than the 1920 figure to the 1903 level). Instapundit/Pajamasmedia gets 500,000 page views per day, 12 million per month. Online estimate $10/cpm for about $1.4 million per year in revenue. However, the staff to achieve that went way down. Nice big modern homes (30,000+ sf) are still very expensive, but not Hearst Castle. It would be easier and cheaper (but still expensive) to make a modern approximation of royalty from an earlier period. Certain things become cheaper and easier to make with better technology.

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