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December 01, 2010

An Even Bigger Century of Nuclear Energy

China is targeting 112 to 120 GW of nuclear power by itself for 2020. McKinsey indicated that China is targeting 120 GW for 2020. So the combined China, India and Vietnam target for the next 15 years is probably over 250 GW of new build.

There is a mention in the Wall Street Journal article that 46 countries could build 1000 reactors by 2030

1000 reactors for 2030 would be the high-2030 scenario from the World Nuclear Association (WNA) - Nuclear Century. The WNA lists nuclear generation targets by country. Even the high targets for China from the WNA are likely to be too low if China hits 120 GW or more by 2020, then 2030 could be 300-400 GW. If China is exporting nuclear reactors for half the price of France (40% lower for the latest reactors and even cheaper for older models) starting in 2013 then other countries could buy and build more reactors than if cheap reactors were not coming from South Korea and China. China will probably also not be as picky about which countries they build reactors.

China has been able to maintain Walmart like costs for its nuclear reactor build.

China and South Korea (and Russia) will be exporting what is currently an Asian nuclear boom around the world. Cheaper reactors that are built on time could solidify the orders that are currently the high end case.

Korea is developing MIT uprating technology that can increase the generation from existing and future reactors.


The high case from WNA with only China increased. Uprating and cheaper exports and new factory mass produced reactors could increase these numbers even more.

Programmes*   2008   2030 High    
                    Capacity in GWe  
Argentina       1    11   
Armenia         0     1     
Belarus         0     5
Belgium         6     8   
Brazil          2    30
Bulgaria        2     7
Canada         13    30
China           9   300    
Czech Republic        7   
Finland         3     7
France         63    75
Germany        20    50
Hungary         2     5 
India           4    70
Iran            0    10    
Japan          48    70   
Lithuania/ Latvia/ Estonia  
                1     6   
Mexico          1    20   
Netherlands     1     5    
Pakistan        0    20    
Romania         1    10 
Russia         22    80
Slovakia        2     4   
Slovenia        1     1   
South Africa    2    25 
South Korea     18   50   
Spain           7    20 
Sweden          9    15 
Switzerland     3     6
Ukraine        13    30 
United Kingdom 11    30   
United States  99   180 
SUBTOTAL      367  1188   
 
Nations Planning Nuclear 
          2008   2030  High   
  Capacity in GWe  
Egypt           0    10   
Gulf Coop       0    50   
Indonesia       0     6 
Kazakhstan      0     2 
Nigeria         0    15
Poland          0    10 
Turkey          0    15 
Vietnam         0    15
SUBTOTAL        0   123   
*Gulf Cooperation Council members are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates 
 
Potential Entrants   
               2008   2030 High   
            Capacity in GWe 
Albania         0     2 
Algeria         0     5   
Australia       0    10
Austria         0     3  
Bangladesh      0    10 
Chile           0     5   
Croatia         0     2
Denmark         0     2 
Greece          0     2 
Iraq            0     2 
Ireland         0     5 
Israel          0     3 
Italy           0    20 
Jordan          0     7 
Kenya           0     2 
Malaysia/Singapore 0 10    
Morocco         0     5 
New Zealand     0     2
Norway          0     2
Philippines     0    10   
Portugal        0     5 
Serbia          0     2    
Syria           0     3 
Thailand        0    10 
Venezuela       0     3 
Other           0     4   
SUBTOTAL        0   140   
WORLD TOTAL   367  1450   

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