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December 11, 2010

End of 2010 Review of my predictions from 2006 part 2

This is the second part of my new review of predictions that I made in 2006

The predictions were published at nanotech-now.

Prediction -
80-200mpg cars - mainstream, batteries, ultracapacitors 5-10 times better 2008-2012

There are several diesel cars with mileage in the 75 mpg range based on UK fuel economy ratings. The UK fuel economy ratings are similar to the old EPA ratings used in 2006 (when the prediction was made) and before.

New EPA mileage rules did not get rolled out until 2007 and those rules lowered mileage figures.

Graphene and other ultracapacitors have made improvements in the 5-10 range in the lab and there is some commercialization of improved ultracapacitors.



Prediction -
Wireless superbroadband (50-1000Mbps) 2009-2012

Wimax 2 should be commercialized at over 50 Mbps by 2011

Bell Mobility announced it was the first wireless company in North American to deploy leading-edge Dual Cell technology, which doubles the speed of HSPA+ mobile data service from up to 21 Mbps to as high as 42 Mbps. Bell has launched 42 Mbps service initially in Toronto and will expand service to more Canadian cities and towns through 2011. With download speeds up to 42 Mbps, upload speeds up to 5.7 Mbps and advanced antenna technologies to maximize data throughput and operating range, the U547 is an easy plug-and-play solution compatible with both Windows and Mac based operating systems. It also includes memory storage up to 32 GB via MicroSD.

More to be added to this article.

Prediction -
Free voice communication dominant 2007-2011

Skype David Gurlé, VP & GM Skype for Business, told Bloomberg News he expects the number of registered Skype accounts to be one billion by 2015. CEO Josh Silverman said signups are more than 300K daily now so 1 billion by 2015 is a conservative prediction.

Skypejournal - What could this mean for revenue? 2009 revenue was $716 million with a bit more than half a billion accounts. Skype as a cloud service (2011) will let millions of web sites, app developers, advertisers and others build Skype into their offerings.

Google has Google voice.

However, the problems with "free voice" are that you still need internet dialtone. You are paying for a wired connection or trying to get free wireless. In general I have to pay someone something or a government (city, state or national) has to step up to offer the free spectrum and help make that market. The prediction was flawed from the start.

Fiber to the home (100Mbps-1000Mbps) 2010-2015
Michael Render’s latest FTTH survey shows nearly 20 million North American
homes passed and more than 6.4 million customers – a thousandfold increase
in a decade and a nice jump in the past six months.


100 mbps fiber to the home is offered in Australia, Europe, Japan, South Korea. 1 Gbps is offered in Hong Kong and some other places.


Correct Prediction: Thousand CPU, FPGA simulator 2007-2008

The RAMP Blue v3.0 rack, with 21 BEE2s, each with 48 cores, for a total of 1008 MicroBlaze cores

When the new TEAM microscope is delivered to Berkeley in 2008 then I would consider it a fulfillment of my prediction
Advanced microscopes with 0.5 angstrom accuracy and repeatability 2006-2008

Prediction - 10 petaflop computer 2012-2013
Fujitsu began shipping computing units for a 10 petaflop computer that is to begin operating in 2012

IBM Sequoia 20 petaflop supercomputer should be built for Lawrence Livermore by 2011-2012.

To be reviewed Predictions -

Nextgen communication (1000Mbps-10000Mbps) 2013-2020
HALE super antennas and long duration balloons 2009-2012
Optical interconnects connect CPUs directly at 100 Gbps+ 2012-2018
Gigapixel cameras common 2009-2015
One billion digital video cameras posting online realtime; personal privacy is history 2008-2012
Thousand+ CPU workstations- mainstream chip vendors 2009-2012
Cargo ships with 60mph+ speed widespread, cheap 2-3 days global package delivery 2010-2015
Cavitation and hydrophobic material make super-efficient and fast submarines
2008-2020
First diamond mechanosynthesis tool created 2007-2008
Rechargeable and repeatable mechanosynthesis tool created 2008-2010
Rechargeable mechanosynthesis tool arrays created 2009-2011
Faster and automated microscopes able to perform mechanochemistry at kilohertz+ frequency 2010-2012
DNA nanotechnology creates nanotools and parts 2010-2015
Feynman Grand Prize 2013-2021
Protein engineering creates artificial ribosome 2014-2022
Superconducting engines on ships and planes, less than 1/3 the weight 2012-2020
Magnetic rail guns, with over 20 times the speed and power of conventional guns 2013-2018
Military lasers on fighters, ships and tanks able to destroy other vehicles 2012-2018
Scramjet unmanned missiles and UAVs 2010-2015
Sub-orbital space tourism 2007-2015
Plasma magnet and magsails by 2012 (now solar electric sail)

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