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December 28, 2010

Emerging Countries after Brazil, India and China

There are suggestions for emerging countries after the BRICs. (Brazil, Russia, India and China). There have been several attempts to identify the next emerging countries. They have been CIVETS, VISTA, NEXT-11 and attempts to expand or alter countries in the BRIC group.

The CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) is an acronym for favored emerging markets coined in late 2009 by Robert Ward, Global Forecasting Director for the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). The term has also been used by HSBC's chief executive Michael Geoghegan. These countries are favored for several reasons, such as a dynamic and diverse economy and a young growing population.

VISTA is an acronym for Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina. It is used in economics in discussing emerging markets. The concept was first proposed in 2006 by BRICs Economic Research Institute of Japan.

The Next Eleven (or N-11) are eleven countries—Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam—identified by Goldman Sachs investment bank as having a high potential of becoming the world's largest economies in the 21st century along with the BRICs.

Indonesia, Vietnam, Turkey and usually South Africa are included in each of the next emerging country lists.

The Economist published its annual series called The World in 2011. the Economist was bullish on Indonesia. It predicted that, with 245 million people in 2011, Indonesia’s GDP will reach around US$806 billion, resulting in a GDP per capita of $3,280. By this figure, Indonesia’s GDP is predicted to exceed those of Turkey and the Netherlands, making Indonesia the 16th largest economic power in the world. Indonesia is forecast to have 6% per year GDP growth in 2011 and 2012.



Vietnam is forecast to have 7% per year GDP growth in 2011.

Mexico and South Korea are currently the world's 13th and 15th largest by nominal GDP,just behind the BRIC and G7 economies, while both are experiencing rapid GDP growth of 5% every year, a figure comparable to Brazil from the original BRICs. Jim O'Neill, expert from the same bank and creator of the economic thesis, stated that in 2001 when the paper was created, it did not consider Mexico, but today it has been included because the country is experiencing the same factors that the other countries first included present. While South Korea was not originally included in the BRICs, recent solid economic growth led to Goldman Sachs proposing to add Mexico and South Korea to the BRICs, changing the acronym to BRIMCK, with Jim O'Neill pointing out that Korea "is better placed than most others to realize its potential due to its growth-supportive fundamentals.

A Goldman Sachs paper published later in December 2005 explained why Mexico and South Korea weren't included in the original BRICs. According to the paper, among the other countries they looked at, only Mexico and South Korea have the potential to rival the BRICs, but they are economies that they decided to exclude initially because they looked at them as already more developed. However, due to the popularity of the Goldman Sachs thesis, "BRIMC" and "BRICK" are becoming more generic marketing terms to refer to these six countries.

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