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December 16, 2010

The Economist World in 2011 and 2036

The Economist World in 2011 forecasts are up and I have some highlights below

Links to the Economist World in 2011 videos



Economist World in 2011 - China

GDP growth: 8.4%
GDP: $6,460bn (PPP: $11,292bn)
Inflation: 3.5%
Population: 1,345.7m
GDP per head: $4,800 (PPP: $8,390)



Economist World in 2011 - India

GDP growth: 8.2%
GDP: $1,832bn (PPP: $4,508bn)
Inflation: 5.8%
Population: 1,202.1m
GDP per head: $1,520 (PPP: $3,750)

Jim O'Neill (chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management) looks at the global economy of 2036

According to our latest projections, China’s economy will have become bigger than America’s: we think it might happen by 2027.

Will China have overtaken America in economic size? Yes
Will the BRIC economies collectively be as big as the G7? Yes
Will European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) still exist? Not in current form
Will Britain have joined it? If there was good reform
Will the international monetary system be anything like that of today? Maybe not


Nearly $2trn, or around 3% of global GDP, is spent on infrastructure each year. The World Economic Forum estimates the combination of population growth, urbanisation and past underinvestment will require a doubling of such spending over the next 20 years. With private credit tight, this acceleration will come largely from developing countries with more fiscal leeway and a greater need for infrastructure improvements.

China will kick off a new five-year plan in 2011 with more than $1trn devoted to infrastructure. Late in the year, the $30bn Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway will open. Not to be outdone, India will rush to spend the remaining funds allocated to its $500bn infrastructure budget for the five years to March 2012. Private financiers—such as Reliance Capital, which will boost lending to the infrastructure sector from $2bn in 2010 to $9bn in 2013—will help developers and contractors tap these funds.

Brazil will begin building a $19bn, 511km high-speed railway between Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo in 2011. The country, which skipped through the global recession with barely a pause, plans to spend nearly $530bn on infrastructure between 2011 and 2014.

The aerotropolis. City planners are looking to airports to fill the anchor role once claimed by seaports. New Songdo International City, a $25bn development on reclaimed land near Incheon airport in South Korea, will house 65,000 residents and accommodate 300,000 office workers when complete in 2014. Developments are also planned near the Atlanta and Memphis airports, America’s busiest air-passenger and cargo hubs

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