December 16, 2010

Economist predicts 2019 for China to pass the USA in nominal GDP

The Economist predicts that China will pass the USA in US dollar GDP at market conversion rates in 2019

The Economist provides an online calculator for people to calculate their own date when China will pass the USA

The maximum values are plus or minus 10% for GDP growth, inflation and currency appreciation.

Over the past decade annual inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) has averaged 3.8% in China against 2.2% in America. And since China ditched its strict dollar peg in 2005 the yuan has risen by an annual average of 4.2%.

I have predicted that China will pass in 2016-2018.

My most likely date is 2017.



China GDP growth averaging 8.5, combined inflation and yuan appreciation of 10%.
US with growth of about 2-3%.
Inflation and yuan appreciation could be 8.5% and the date would still be 2017.
China GDP growth could slow to 6.5% per day witha combined inflation and yuan appreciation of 8.5% and the date would be 2018 (with moderately slow US growth).

Projected GDP:

Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP  US Growth 

2011e 42            9.6    6.49       6.47      6.7   14.9   2       
2012 45             9      6          7.5       7.7   15.1   2.1
2013 49             9      5.6        8.7       8.9   15.4   3
2014 53             9      5.1       10.4      10.7   15.7   3
2015 58             9      4.7       12.3      12.6   16     3
2016 63             9      4.4       14.3      14.7   16.4   3       
2017 68             8      4         17.0      17.3   16.8   3 Past USA
2018 74             8      3.7       19.9      20.2   17.2   3
2019 80             8      3.4       23.5      23.8   17.6   3
2020 86             8      3         28.6      28.9   18.1   3
2021 93             8      3         30.9      31.2   18.7   3
2022 100            8      3         33.4      33.7   19.2   3
2023 108            8      3         36.0      36.3   19.8   3
2024 117            8      3         38.9      39.2   20.4   3
2025 126            8      3         42.0      42.3   21.0   3
2026 136            7      3         45.4      45.7   21.6   3
2027 146            7      3         48.6      48.9   22.3   3
2028 156            7      3         52.0      52.3   23.0   3
2029 167            7      3         55.6      55.9   23.6   3
2030 179            7      3         59.5      59.8   24.4   3




If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks

Featured articles

Ocean Floor Gold and Copper
   Ocean Floor Mining Company

Congratulations! Now you can use SolidOpinion commenting system in all its magnificence! Click the link to get your password.

Форма для связи

Name

Email *

Message *