The Economist provides an online calculator for people to calculate their own date when China will pass the USA
The maximum values are plus or minus 10% for GDP growth, inflation and currency appreciation.
Over the past decade annual inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) has averaged 3.8% in China against 2.2% in America. And since China ditched its strict dollar peg in 2005 the yuan has risen by an annual average of 4.2%.
I have predicted that China will pass in 2016-2018.
My most likely date is 2017.
China GDP growth averaging 8.5, combined inflation and yuan appreciation of 10%.
US with growth of about 2-3%.
Inflation and yuan appreciation could be 8.5% and the date would still be 2017.
China GDP growth could slow to 6.5% per day witha combined inflation and yuan appreciation of 8.5% and the date would be 2018 (with moderately slow US growth).
Projected GDP:
Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP US Growth 2011e 42 9.6 6.49 6.47 6.7 14.9 2 2012 45 9 6 7.5 7.7 15.1 2.1 2013 49 9 5.6 8.7 8.9 15.4 3 2014 53 9 5.1 10.4 10.7 15.7 3 2015 58 9 4.7 12.3 12.6 16 3 2016 63 9 4.4 14.3 14.7 16.4 3 2017 68 8 4 17.0 17.3 16.8 3 Past USA 2018 74 8 3.7 19.9 20.2 17.2 3 2019 80 8 3.4 23.5 23.8 17.6 3 2020 86 8 3 28.6 28.9 18.1 3 2021 93 8 3 30.9 31.2 18.7 3 2022 100 8 3 33.4 33.7 19.2 3 2023 108 8 3 36.0 36.3 19.8 3 2024 117 8 3 38.9 39.2 20.4 3 2025 126 8 3 42.0 42.3 21.0 3 2026 136 7 3 45.4 45.7 21.6 3 2027 146 7 3 48.6 48.9 22.3 3 2028 156 7 3 52.0 52.3 23.0 3 2029 167 7 3 55.6 55.9 23.6 3 2030 179 7 3 59.5 59.8 24.4 3
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