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October 06, 2010

China Emissions Won't Peak Until GDP Per Head Matches Developed Nations

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China’s current per capita GDP just exceeds $3,000 and developed countries with per capita GDP more than $40,000 are still increasing greenhouse gas emissions according to Xie Zhenhua, China's top climate change official.

Xie added that China's emissions peak was unlikely to come before its per capita GDP reached 40,000 U.S. dollars.


China's top climate change official said that the country's greenhouse gas emissions would peak at an earlier date if developed countries complied with the international protocols.

"We will try to get passed the peak of emissions as early as possible, but this also hinges on how much money the developed nations will offer and what technology they will transfer as required by the international protocols," Xie Zhenhua, also vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters on the sidelines of the ongoing United Nations climate talks in northern China's Tianjin.

"The more money they provide, or the earlier the money arrives, the sooner we should be able to pass the emissions peak," Xie said.


Currently my forecasts for China (based on synthesizing the research that I have seen) is for per capita GDP to get to $40,000 in about 2030

Projected GDP:
Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP  US Growth 
                                  trillons   trillions 
2012 45             9      6          7.5       7.7   15.1   2.1
2013 49             9      5.6        8.7       8.9   15.4   3
2014 53             9      5.1       10.4      10.7   15.7   3
2015 58             9      4.7       12.3      12.6   16     3
2016 63             9      4.4       14.3      14.7   16.4   3       
2017 68             8      4         17.0      17.3   16.8   3 Past USA
2018 74             8      3.7       19.9      20.2   17.2   3
2019 80             8      3.4       23.5      23.8   17.6   3
2020 86             8      3         28.6      28.9   18.1   3
2021 93             8      3         30.9      31.2   18.7   3
2022 100            8      3         33.4      33.7   19.2   3
2023 108            8      3         36.0      36.3   19.8   3
2024 117            8      3         38.9      39.2   20.4   3
2025 126            8      3         42.0      42.3   21.0   3
2026 136            7      3         45.4      45.7   21.6   3
2027 146            7      3         48.6      48.9   22.3   3
2028 156            7      3         52.0      52.3   23.0   3
2029 167            7      3         55.6      55.9   23.6   3
2030 179            7      3         59.5      59.8   24.4   3

Getting to about 60 trillion GDP for about 1.5 billion people in 2030 is $40,000 per person GDP. Others forecast a slower rise in GDP which would mean longer until China gets to $40,000 per person. Key factors for China's economic future are maintaining growth as high as possible for as long as possible, urbanization, aging population and managing resources and pollution.

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