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September 26, 2010

Nvidia predicts ARM smartphones will eclipse the x86 PC and Tegra 2 phones by end of 2010, Tegra 3 for 2011 and Tegra 4 by 2012

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ARM will triumph over Intel as smartphones and tablets disrupt the x86 PC industry, said Jen-Hsun Huang, chief executive of Nvidia.

* ARM will be the most important CPU architecture of the future, and it already is the fastest growing processor architecture

* The PC of the future will be made by new OEMs, sold through new distributors and use a new instruction-set architecture

* Nvidia CEO Huang does not remember in the past 30 years this much change being about to happen

Hexus reports Nvidia is about "two-thirds" focused on parallel and high-performance computing. This leaves 30 per cent of its resources for visualisation - including consumer graphics-cards - and around five percent for mobile products, namely Tegra.

Talking to press after his GTC keynote speech, company CEO Jen-Hsun Huang revealed that the next-generation Tegra 3 mobile SoC was almost finished.

Tegra 3 should be in portable devices by the end of 2011.

LG will have the Tegra 2 for the optimus smartphone

There are rumors that Motorola will release a Droid T2 smartphone using the Tegra 2 and running on the Verizon network.

The NVIDIA Tegra 2 features a number of mobile "firsts": the first mobile dual core CPU, the only ultra-low power NVIDIA GeForce GPU and the first 1080p HD mobile video processor. Taking full advantage of the two speedy 1GHz processors sharing the workload in Tegra 2, users are promised up to 2x faster Web browsing and up to 5x faster gaming performance over single core processors running at 1GHz. The NVIDIA Tegra 2 processor is also said to deliver flawless 1080p HD video playback, console-quality gaming and amazing 3D capabilities

The new Motorola smartphone will also be the first to offer Android Gingerbread. This version of Android will for instance offer built-in support for Adobe AIR applications. The blog says Gingerbread is likely version 2.5 of Android, while Honeycomb will be version 3.0. The latter is expected to be powering the upcoming Motorola tablet for Verizon Wireless, which is scheduled for release in Q1 2011.



Huang also announced that engineers were already working on Tegra 4. The company now plans to release a new ARM-based processor "every single year", meaning that the fourth-generation chip should be available sometime in 2012.

There are 200 million smartphones this year and 400 million are expected by 2014.

Instat is predicting 291 million notebooks for 2014 and that will be 52% of the computing market.

Paul Otellini of Intel said that in 2010, for the first time, PCs cross a million a day. A million PCs a day [are] built, shipped and sold in the industry. By 2014, that number basically doubles, it approaches 700 million units [annually] as the near addressable market for our company.

According to Gartner market tracking firm, the compound annual growth (CAGR) for desktops will be 2.4% from 2010 to 2014, CAGR for notebooks will be around 22% in the same timeframe, CAGR for netbooks will be approximately 15%, whereas CAGR for slate-type PCs will be whopping 73% - 88% (based on the numbers from InStat).


It looks like 2014-2016 is when the domination of smartphones and tablets should be statistically clear. All of the industry forecasts are in agreement on the shift in form factors. Intel will continue to compete to provide processors.

As noted here, by 2013 there will be quadcore ARM chips with 2.5 GHz of performance and triple core ARM chips with 1.5 GHz of performance are appearing at the end of 2010.



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