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September 11, 2010

China's expected per person purchasing power parity progress through 2024

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China per capita GDP (PPP) from 2010 to 2015 as projected by the IMF

      
   China PPP per cap   Other Country Matched
2010  7,240             More Algeria 2010, Below Bosnia 2010
2011  8,032             Ecuador 2010, Ukraine 2013
2012  8,932             Thailand 2011
2013  9,930             Thailand 2013
2014 11,039             Brazil 2010
2015 12,255             Brazil 2012

Assuming continued 11% per year growth
2016 13,600             Turkey 2011
2017 15,100             Argentina 2010
2018 16,760             Russia 2011
2019 18,600             Mexico 2015, Poland 2010
2020 20,650             Trinidad 2010 
2021 22,920             Portugal 2012
2022 25,440             Czech Republic 2011, Saudi Arabia 2012
2023 28,242             New Zealand 2011
2024 31,350             Italy 2013


The per capita GDP growth gets more uncertain 3-5 years out and even more so beyond 6 years. However, even if China starts losing a percentage point or more of growth for every three years, China is likely to get to Russia's 2010 level by 2020 and has a reasonable shot at Italy's current level in 2024-2032.

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