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August 02, 2010

History and Future of US and China GDP

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This is an update of a historical comparison of the GDP of China and USA that was done in 2008.

China adjusted its 2009 GDP to 34.05 trillion yuan

The U.K.'s National Institute of Economic and Social Research forecast in a report released in late July that China will eclipse the U.S. in 2019. It assumed China to grow 11.6 percent this year and 8 percent on average afterwards, and the U.S. 3.1 percent and 3 percent respectively.

GDP figures for 2009 from the Worldbank

The latest national economic census found the chinese economy was worth 31.4 trillion yuan in 2008, head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Ma Jiantang said at a briefing, or around 4.6 billion dollars based on the current exchange rate.
IMF GDP estimates made in 2008 for 2008 through 2013

Currency history can be examined here at oanda.com

China revised GDP growth in 2006 for 1973-2004 with the 2005 economic survey.

Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth.. Yuan/USD. China GDP  US GDP  Japan  China%of US
2000  9.92           8.4    8.27      1.20       9.76    4.65    12.3%
2001  10.6           8.3    8.27      1.32      10.1     4.09    13.1%
2002  11             9.1    8.27      1.45      10.42    3.90    13.9%
2003  13            10.0    8.27      1.64      10.92    4.23    15.0%
2004  15.9          10.1    8.27      1.92      11.68    4.58    16.4%
2005  18.31          9.9    8.1       2.23      12.42    4.53    18.0%
2006  20.94         10.7    7.97      2.67      13.2     4.34    20.2%
2007  24.66         11.9    7.6       3.38      13.8     4.38    24.5%
2008  31.4           9.6    6.83      4.59      14.3     4.87    32%
2009  34.1           9.1    6.83      5.03      14.3     5.07    35%  
2010e 38            10.5    6.65      5.71      14.6     5.3     39%
2011e 42             9.6    6.49      6.47      14.9     5.6     43.4%

Including Hong Kong and Macau would bring China to 45% of the US GDP in 2011.


2000-2004 China increased 34% from 12.3% to 16.4% against the USA and the 2004 economy was 60% larger than 2000. The US GDP increased 19.6% over the same time.

2004-2008 China almost doubled from 16.4% to 32% against the USA and the 2008 economy is more than double than the 2004 economy in US dollars. 2008 China is almost double in yuan terms the 2004 China. The US economy increased 22.4% over the same time. The currency has moved about 22.5% [currently 21%, expect some more movement by the end of 2008].

Repeating the 2000-2004 time frame with 34% moves would place China passing the US economy in the 2025-2028 period. However, this would mean the US currency would stabilize at current exchange rates.

Repeating the 2004-2008 time frame with doubling moves would place China passing the USA in 2015-2017. The exchange rate would be 4.1 yuan to one US dollar.

China could start to grow slower than it did from 2000-2004. The United States seems unlikely to grow faster from 2011-2015 than it did from 2000-2004. China's currency seems likely to continue to strengthen.

Previous relevant article: China will be a superpower in spite of aging population and pollution.

China's middle class is emerging now

China's urbanization alone will add 70+% of GDP between now and 2020.

China is building out energy, communication and transportation and other infrastructure for a fully modern, environmentally clean and advanced economy.



Projected GDP:
Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP  US Growth 
2012 45             9      6          7.5       7.7   15.1   2.1
2013 49             9      5.6        8.7       8.9   15.4   3
2014 53             9      5.1       10.4      10.7   15.7   3
2015 58             9      4.7       12.3      12.6   16     3
2016 63             9      4.4       14.3      14.7   16.4   3       
2017 68             8      4         17.0      17.3   16.8   3 Past USA
2018 74             8      3.7       19.9      20.2   17.2   3
2019 80             8      3.4       23.5      23.8   17.6   3
2020 86             8      3         28.6      28.9   18.1   3
2021 93             8      3         30.9      31.2   18.7   3
2022 100            8      3         33.4      33.7   19.2   3
2023 108            8      3         36.0      36.3   19.8   3
2024 117            8      3         38.9      39.2   20.4   3
2025 126            8      3         42.0      42.3   21.0   3
2026 136            7      3         45.4      45.7   21.6   3
2027 146            7      3         48.6      48.9   22.3   3
2028 156            7      3         52.0      52.3   23.0   3
2029 167            7      3         55.6      55.9   23.6   3
2030 179            7      3         59.5      59.8   24.4   3


Economywatch has a projections from 2010 to 2015 based on OECD, IMF, UN, World Bank and CIA data. Economywatch is actually projecting a slightly higher level for China's GDP in local currency. They are expecting a few fractions of a percent higher annual GDP growth. If they are correct then it is a question of what the RMB and USD exchange rate will be to calculate a nominal GDP value for China. I do not see how China's currency would appreciate less than 15% versus the US Dollar over 5 years and should be at least 30%. I am projecting a 44% increase in the value of the RMB relative to the USD. It would be a 71% appreciation if the exchange rate matched the implied exchange rate projected for 2015.



From the Economist, China is not overly export dependent.

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