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July 03, 2010

World Uranium Production for 2009 was 50572 tons


World uranium production for 2009 was 50572 tons

So I won the bet with Dittmar on Uranium production for 2009.

The bet for 2009 was 47,383 tons as over under (the actual midpoint). My prediction was 49,722 tons for 2009
My prediction for 2010 was 56,000+ tons of production. that prediction is also looking good.
My Uranium production forecast from 2009 is below. 3 quarters of production was known, but Dittmar still made a prediction of 44,000 tons for 2009. His prediction of 44,000 tons was off by about 15% for the same year the prediction was made.

Michael Dittmar's incorrect articles were also featured in an MIT Technology Review blog about arxiv articles.

Dittmar also was cited in an article in the Economist (Green View - Fuelling fears : A uranium shortage could derail plans to go nuclear to cut carbon emissions)

Michael Dittmar, a researcher at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, thinks they (International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Energy Agency) are mistaken. He has studied the uranium supply and argues, in a recent series of papers, that shortages will drive the nuclear renaissance to an untimely end. Although your correspondent suspects that Dr Dittmar is probably being overly pessimistic, he is inclined to agree with him that the Red Book’s precise assessments of what will be economically sensible over 85 years are far from accurate.




Dittmar's very Wrong but Well Publicized Predictions of Uranium
Michael Dittmar wrote a series of posts about nuclear energy that was published on The Oil Drum in 2009. In the first post of the series, he said that uranium "civilian uranium stocks are expected to be exhausted during the next few years" and "the current uranium supply situation is unsustainable".


Previous discussion of my uranium production prediction and bet

Namibia could add 6700 tons per year from the South Rossing mine by 2013.


Reviewing The Nuclear Generation Bet Series

Dittmar won the nuclear power generation bet for 2009. He said 2575 TWH and I said 2600 TWhe

Dittmar              Brian                  Midpoint

2009   2575 TWhe            2600 TWhe               2587.5
2010   2550 TWhe            2630                    2590
2011   2550                 2650                    2600
2012   2550                 2700                    2625
2013   2525                 2750                    2637.5
2014   2250                 2800                    2525
2015   2250                 2900                    2575
2016   2250                 3200                    2725
2017   2250                 3500                    2875
2018   2250                 3800                    3025
Actual generation was 2559 TWH - lower because of some problems in France

I am expecting 2010 to get back on track for generation and for reactors to be started up. Japan is increasing its capacity factor and turning on shutdown reactors from an earthquake.


For May 2010, US nuclear generation was 66.3 billion kilowatt-hours compared to 65.2 billion kWh in May 2009. The average capacity factor for May 2010 was 88.5 percent compared to 87.0 percent in April 2009. Year-to-date 2010 nuclear generation is 0.8 percent behind the same period in 2009 but is slightly higher than the same period for the record year in 2007.

The first three months of 2010 for the OECD nuclear generation were 561.6 TWH (-1.2% from the first three months of 2009)

Reactor Construction

438 nuclear reactors are operating and there are 61 under construction

2010 Highlights:

New connection to the grid:
Rostov 2 (950 MW(e), PWR-VVER, Russia) - first grid connection on 18 March
        Note: Rostov is a new official name of Volgodonsk reactor units.
Rajasthan 6 (202 MW(e), PHWR, India) - first grid connection on 28 March
Final shutdowns:
Phenix (130 MW(e), FBR, France) was officially closed on 1 February
Construction initiation:
Ningde 3 (1000 MW(e), PWR, China) - construction officially started on 8 January
Taishan 2 (1700 MW(e), PWR-EPR, China) - construction officially started on 15 April
Leningrad 2-2 (1085 MW(e), PWR-VVER, Russia) - construction officially started on 15 April
Changjiang 1 (1000 MW(e), PWR, China) - construction officially started on 25 April
Angra 3 (1245 MW(e), PWR, Brazil) - construction officially started on 1 June
Rostov 4 (1011 MW(e), PWR-VVER, Russia) - construction officially started on 16 June
Haiyang 2 (1000 MW(e), PWR-AP1000, China) - construction officially started on 21 June
 

Changes of NPP status during 2009:

New connection to the grid:
Tomari 3 (866 MW(e), PWR, Japan) - first grid connection on 20 March
Rajasthan 5 (202 MW(e), PHWR, India) - first grid connection on 22 December
Final shutdowns:
Hamaoka 1&2 (515/806 MW(e), BWR, Japan) were officially closed on 31 January
Ignalina 2 (1185 MW(e), RBMK, Lithuania) was shutdown on 31 December
Construction initiation:
Hongyanhe 3 (1000 MW(e), PWR, China) - construction officially started on 7 March
Sanmen 1 (1000 MW(e), PWR AP-1000, China) - construction officially started on 19 April
Yangjiang 2 (1000 MW(e), PWR, China) - construction officially started on 4 June
Fuqing 2 (1000 MW(e), PWR, China) - construction officially started on 17 June
Novovoronezh 2-2 (1085 MW(e), PWR-VVER, Russia) - construction officially started on 12 July
Fangjiashan 2 (1000 MW(e), PWR, China) - construction officially started on 17 July
Hongyanhe 4 (1000 MW(e), PWR, China) - construction officially started on 15 August
Rostov 3 (1011 MW(e), PWR-VVER, Russia) - construction officially started on 15 September (announced in June 2010)
Shin-Kori 4 (1340 MW(e), PWR-APR 1400, S. Korea) - construction officially started on 15 September
Haiyang 1 (1000 MW(e), PWR, China) - construction officially started on 24 September
Taishan 1 (1700 MW(e), PWR-EPR, China) - construction officially started on 18 November
Sanmen 2 (1000 MW(e), PWR AP-1000, China) - construction officially started on 17 December
Construction reactivation:
Akademik Lomonosov 1&2 (2x30 MW(e), PWR-KLT40, Russia) - floating NPP will be finally located close to Vilyuchinsk instead of Severodvinsk
Mochovce 3&4 (2x405 MW(e), PWR-VVER, Slovakia) - construction officially reactivated on 11 June
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