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June 14, 2010

Summarizing the Current Views on China's Nearterm Currency Plans

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Predictions about China's near term currency plans are summarized at Reuters.
The expectations are for the Chinese currency to move from the current exchange rate of 6.83 against the US dollar to about 6.66 to 6.5 by the end of 2010 and then most have 6.5 at the end of 2011.

Goldman Sachs (June 10)

"We keep our 3, 6 and 12-month USD/CNY forecasts at 6.74, 6.66 and 6.49, respectively. While we had never built in any meaningful up-front revaluation, the chance now is even more remote

Morgan Stanley

We maintain our long-standing call for a renminbi depeg from, and revaluation against, the USD during the summer


UBS (June 4)

Provided that financial markets stabilize in the next few weeks, we expect the RMB to be allowed to appreciate faster against the USD within the next couple of months, most likely in the form of a gradual move accompanied by an increase in the daily trading band, and trade at 6.6 against the USD by end of this year

Capital Economics (May 25)

"Our expectation remains that the renminbi will climb from today's 6.83/$ to 6.75 by the end of the year and to 6.50 by the end of 2011. This would be a 5 percent gain against the dollar by the end of next year and, based on our forecasts for other currencies, a 15 percent gain in trade weighted terms.


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