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May 23, 2010

Google Will Win in Phones and Pad Computers and Apple will still be a Niche Player

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Apple has returned to being a successful company. Apple has about 1% of the global phone market and a US PC marketshare of about 8%. Worldwide Apple's PC marketshare is about 2-3%. Apple is a profitable premium niche player and a design leader. However, Apple is repeating its formula for smartphones and Pad computers and their choices will leave them with a small premium market. If Apple stumbles like they did when Steve Jobs left them then the volume players will out innovate them and Apple will lose premium pricing power and lose some branding edge.

Google Andoid has
* 50,000 Applications
* 180,000 developers
* Google is already Second in Smartphone sales after Rim (Blackberry)
* Google Android has the most web and data traffic for smartphones (it is used more for browing and searching which means it is the best for mobile advertisers already)
* The Google ecosystem is healthier and stronger for developers, OEMs (hardward partners) and business partners

* Apple iPhone and iPad are good and profitable for Apple, but they do not leave a lot on the table for others. It is the rare application writers who do well with Apple but adsense and adwords make many a lot of money.
Full Google Day 2 Keynote address (43 minutes)


Link to Google IO video of Day 2 keynote part 3 of 5

* Dalvik Virtual machine has a Just in Time compiler that is 2 to 5 times faster than before

There will be a swarm of $200 and even $100 android phones and Pad computers and more form factors coming from China and Taiwan and other places. They will run Chrome applications and android applications and they will be fast and have USB and memory stick ports.
Further Reading
IDC has a forecast of the world PC and portable PC markets from 2010-2014.



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