Blake thinks that Firefox will decline from 25-30% browser market share to single digit market sharein 3-5 years.
I’m pretty skeptical. I think the Mozilla Organization has gradually reverted back to its old ways of being too timid, passive and consensus-driven to release breakthrough products quickly.Governing bodies (Mozilla and W3C) are slowing down the development process on the web, and making it harder to innovate.
Chrome/Safari and IE9 seem likely to win market share from Firefox.
Mobile and Built-in Browsers
Lilly is right when he implies that the key to this argument may well be in the mobile space. The problem there is that the WebKit browsers are starting to dominate thanks to the popularity of Google’s Android platform, and Apple’s iPhone (and BlackBerry will soon have a WebKit browser as well). An early build of Firefox for Android is out in the wild, but it will take something really impressive for people to use it instead of Android’s built-in WebKit browser. Apple, meanwhile, has started to let on alternative browsers as well — notably, Opera. But again, it will be hard for any browser to beat the tightly integrated built-in browsers (and who knows if Apple would even let a mobile version of Firefox in the App Store
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