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February 10, 2010

Latest Canadian Oilsand Production Growth Forecast and Summarizing Main World Oil Production Growth Sources


Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers have an updated forecast for canadian oil production and in particular the oilsands

Wall Street Journal - Lower labour and material costs are enabling more oil sand projects to get restarted

Adding Significant Oil in Iraq, Brazil, Canada and the United States
Canada will be adding a little of 1 million barrels of oil per day from now to 2020. More could be added if oil prices stay strong.

Iraq oil production could increase by 9.5 million barrels of oil per day over the next six years.

Brazil is projected to add 2-3 million barrels of oil per day by the largest private owner of Brazillian oil, Eike Batista

The United States is increasing its oil production and could add a million barrels per day or more over the next few years.

Wider application of horizontal drilling

Canadian Oilsand
Economics coming into line for some projects
-Driven by stronger oil prices and lower costs
-Projects under construction:
•Imperial Kearl Lake
•Shell Jackpine and Shell upgrader including Quest CCS project
-Projects Re-activated
•Suncor Firebag Phases 3 and 4
•Devon Jackfish Phase 3 application in 2010
•Cenovus Christina Lake –application for phases E, F, G
•ConocoPhillips/Total –Surmount phase 2
•Husky/BP –Sunrise phase 1

-Enhanced Oil/Tight Oil
•Technology enabled plays such as the Bakken, Cardium and Viking (multi-frac horizontal wells)
•Narrow Light/Heavy Differentials
-Good news for heavy oil projects
-Tough for stand alone upgraders in the short term
•Competing against existing capacity left empty by Venezuela and Mexico








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