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January 14, 2010

Tracking the Avatar Number One Box Office Prediction

Avatar has grossed $1.42 billion worldwide and this total does not have all of last weekends totals for all foreign markets and no counts past Sunday for any foreign market.

Avatar added $15 million domestically since Monday through Wednesday and should have added $45+ million overseas. Another $5 million today and $15 million overseas. Avatar should have $1.44 billion by the end of today. In two more weeks, Avatar would likely break Titanics Worldwide box office total (although it could take some extra days to tally the foreign box office).

Titanic held weekly domestic totals above $30 million through week 9 and above $20 million through week 14. Dark Knight was under $30 million in week 5 and under $20 million in week 6.

If Avatar can hold as well as did between weeks 3 and week 4 into the later weeks then

Week 5 box office $64 million [Expect $68 million, but had long weekend]
Week 6 box office $50 million
Week 7 box office $40 million
Week 8 box office $30 million



Adding that to the total likely after today (Thursday another $5 million to end week 4) would be $450 million + 184 million or $634 million. Titanic would be passed at the end of week 7. The above weekly decline rate would target about $700 million domestically.

Titanic defied box office weekly declines by making more money in week 5 than it did in week 4 and then massively slowing its weekly declines.

If this weekend domestic numbers hold to about $40 million then that would indicate tracking to the $700 million target. If it held above $40 million then it would indicate Avatar was biasing towards Titanic like box office longevity. Avatar would likely then hold above $20 million past week 9 and towards week 15.

My adjusted estimate is $450 million domestically and $0.99 billion right now for 1.44 billion.

My guess going forward is another $250 million domestic and $800 million overseas.

UPDATE: After weekend up to $1.615 billion. Expect $85 million for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (foreign was not counted for Monday yet). For $1.7 billion by the end of week 5.

$350-360 million added in Week 5

Week 6 - $260 million est
Week 7 - $200 million est
Week 8 - $140 million est
END UPDATE

For a $2.55 billion world target. Worst case seems to be now another $150 million domestic and $500 million overseas. For a $2.1 billion world total.




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