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January 17, 2010

Friedman on nanotech and AI economics

Nanotech -still have high design costs
Drexlerian nanotech have copies at the cost of raw materials
This is like intellectual property now.

High fixed costs and low variable costs ?

It looks more like monopolistic competition
On the margins there is some competition.
Some people really like stuff from say Apple who like what they make a lot and prices would have to massively shift before they switch.

Shifts from visicalc / lotus 123 / excel etc...

Sequential monopoly



Piracy issue and history

books - US pirating books in the 17-18th century. Strategy to use first mover advantage, but now and in future first mover may not be able to get enough returns fast enough.


advanced biosecurity for products

advertising supported products

something like radio - content and advertising

patronage system

open source

==software economy

Artificial Intelligence Economy Speculation

Two radically different visions:
No consciousness but very intelligence and no goals

Capital substitutes for labor

International Trade - there is no absolute measure of what is better

Exchange rates
protectionism does not protect american autoworkers from chinese autoworkers
It protects american autoworkers from american farmers

Farmers can grow wheat ship it over to China and get back a ship full of cars.

New ways of using capital that reduces value of labor.
Capital return goes up and labor returns go down.

Ricardo on labor, capital and land

Really good VR (virtual reality) could reduce demand for land

===
can also do it the old way - where humans are still needed (Big future amish world)

We have survived eliminating virtually all farm jobs and the shift of women being mostly just raising children.

ricardo iron law of wages

Effect of Legal rights of AI
1. People own AI and get the returns of what they make
Owned AI's compete down to about the marginal cost
Significantly different flavors of AI then you have some monopolistic competition

2. AI owns its clones (altruistic or not to them)






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