January 18, 2010

Foresight 2010 Presentation on High Impact Technology

Embedded below is the powerpoints of the presentation that I made at the Foresight 2010 conference (Nanotechnology and AGI).

I will be expanding upon various segments of the presentation in articles on this site.

The initial 23 or so slides (after the title and introduction) are about technology that has some potential to significantly impact the overall direction of the world economy.

The next 15 or so slides are about the scale of the challenge of impacting the world economy. What were things in the past which did have that impact and how using super technology to refine those things can still have even more impact. For example, in China people in cities have about 4 times more per capita GDP than those in rural areas. Urbanization is contributing about +3% per year to China's GDP growth. If a 2.0 version of cities could be developed which enabled 2 to 3 times greater per capita GDP then implementing those new cities would increase future world GDP.
There is still an increase of 30% of world urbanization occuring over the next 50-100 years. So providing models for new even more efficient cities could be done even if people chose not to radically alter existing cities.

I will be discussing my idea of creating computational governance mechanisms to assist in better decisions and to more rapidly get accurate feedback on the results of new policies so that the need for corrective action can be detected and acted upon. There is also a need for co-evolution of societal models and business market models/simulation systems and rapid feedback on the results of government and business plans. Models and Plans are all flawed and setting up better feedback processes can enable pre-implementation testing and validation and post implementation tracking and fine-tuning.

The big impacts on GDP growth that are possible now are from decisions and systems that enable better government and business systems. Goldman Sachs proposed how to increase India's GDP growth from 8% to 10% by increasing the savings rate in India. Capital market efficiency can have a big impact. There are the major economic components - capital, labor and land.

David Ricardo is an economist laid the foundation for systemic economics

Factors of production need to be understood in order to work out better plans to improve GDP growth

The last part of the presentation (which I did not have time to present) were discussions of my timing estimates)


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