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December 26, 2009

China GDP Growth revised upwards


China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revises its GDP growth for 2008 up from 9.0% to 9.6%

China raised GDP for 2008 to 31.4045 trillion yuan from the previous figure of 30.067 trillion yuan. The new figure amounted to about 4.59 trillion U.S. dollars, at the exchange rate on Dec. 31 of 2008. China's gross domestic product was 4.5% larger in 2008 than it had previously estimated.

The revised volume for the agriculture sector was 3.3702 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.7 percent of GDP, down from 3.4 trillion yuan.

The figure for the industrial sector was put at 14.9003 trillion yuan, accounting for 47.5 percent of GDP, larger than the earlier figure of 14.6183 trillion yuan.

China would likely revise higher its economic growth rates for the first three quarters of 2009, with overall economic output for the year likely to reach 33.5 trillion yuan. If China hits the 8.9% growth then it should 2009 with 34.2 trillion yuan economy. China is running an economic Census in 2010 and the last census caused an upward revision of about 17%.

That would leave China "just shy" of Japan as the world's second-biggest economy trailing the U.S. this year, and in position to overtake Japan in 2010.

China's economy may reach $5.5 trillion next year, Merrill Lynch said. That would displace Japan's economy, which is estimated by the International Monetary Fund to reach $5.19 trillion next year.




China's economy expanded 8.9% in the third quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from a 6.1% on-year expansion in the first quarter. Beijing has forecast that its economy will expand 8% in 2009.

The statistics bureau also on Friday revised higher the nation's energy consumption for 2008 by 2.1%. The revision means the amount of energy China used per unit of GDP fell by 5.2% from 2007 levels.



Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP US Growth
2007 25.8 13 7.3 3.5 3.7 13.8 1.1 Past Germany
2008 31.4 9.6 6.85 4.6 4.8 14.3 -3.1
2009 34.2 8.9 6.83 5.0 5.2 13.9 0.7 Passing Japan
2010 37.6 10 6.5 5.8 6.0 14.0 1.5 Past Japan
2011 41.0 9 6.0 6.8 7.0 14.2 1.9
2012 44.7 9 5.6 8.0 8.2 14.4 2.1
2013 48.7 9 5.1 9.6 9.8 14.7 3
2014 53.1 9 4.7 11.3 11.5 15.2 3
2015 57.9 9 4.2 13.8 14.0 15.6 3
2016 63.1 9 3.8 16.6 16.8 16.1 3 Past USA
2017 68.1 8 3.5 19.5 19.7 16.6 3
2018 73.6 8 3.2 23 23.2 17.1 3
2019 79.5 8 3 26.5 26.8 17.6 3
2020 86 8 3 28.6 28.9 18.1 3
2021 93 8 3 30.9 31.2 18.7 3
2022 100 8 3 33.4 33.7 19.2 3
2023 108 8 3 36.0 36.3 19.8 3
2024 117 8 3 38.9 39.2 20.4 3
2025 126 8 3 42.0 42.3 21.0 3
2026 136 7 3 45.4 45.7 21.6 3
2027 146 7 3 48.6 48.9 22.3 3
2028 156 7 3 52.0 52.3 23.0 3
2029 167 7 3 55.6 55.9 23.6 3
2030 179 7 3 59.5 59.8 24.4 3


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