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November 23, 2009

Economist - The World in 2010

The Economist magazine has their annual projections for the coming year. This year it is the World in 2010

Projected statistics for 80 countries in 2010 (9 page pdf)

Statistics for 15 industries countries in 2010 (4 page pdf)

The Economist long term projection for China's economy is still a positive one.

Over the next decade, China’s annual growth will slow from the 10%-plus pace of the past few years to perhaps 7%—still one of the fastest rates in the world. But future growth will be less dependent on exports. As China’s share of world exports hits 10% in 2010, up from 4% in 2000, Japan’s experience will be instructive. It suggests that there are limits to a country’s global market share: after reaching 10%, its share of world markets fell as the yen strengthened. Likewise, China will be under foreign pressure to allow the yuan to resume its climb against the dollar in 2010.


China's aging population and population in general are discussed

China is running out of children to look after the elderly, a state of affairs often summed up by the formula “4-2-1”: four grandparents, two parents, one child. The country has about 20 years to get its act together. Although its workforce will start shrinking from 2010 relative to the population, in absolute terms both its number of workers and its population as a whole will grow until about 2030, when the population will peak at around 1.46 billion. After that it will begin to decline gently.

If the government really wants to rejuvenate the population, it will need to loosen its policy. More children would increase the dependency ratio until they were old enough to join the labour force. But if it were done soon, some of those children would reach working age just before the crunch time of 2030, easing the labour shortage from then on.

Most officials are adamant that the policy remains in place. But in Shanghai, where the birth rate is well below the national average, the city government is now encouraging couples entitled to more than one child to take full advantage. Where it leads, others may follow.


China's 2010 census could turn up an undercount. The 2010 census undercounted by 22 million. The current population estimate for China could be low by 20-30 million. Instead of 1.339 billion the population of China could be 1.36 or 1.37 billion.




Country 2010 GDP 2010 Growth Percap GDP PPP Percap PPP
1. USA 14.84 trillion 2.4% $47,920 14.84 t $47,920
2. China 5.59 trillion 8.6% $ 4,170 9.85 t $ 7,350
3. Japan 5.13 trillion 1.3% $40,440 4.23 t $33,340
4. Germany 3.20 trillion 0.5% $38,520 2.81 t $33,840
5. France 2.72 trillion 0.9% $43,240 2.16 t $34,310
6. UK 2.26 trillion 0.6% $36,250 2.16 t $34,730
7. Italy 2.14 trillion 0.4% $36,820 1.72 t $29,630
8. Brazil 1.67 trillion 3.8% $ 8,480 2.11 t $10,740
9. Canada 1.48 trillion 2.0% $43,450 1.32 t $38,850
10. India 1.47 trillion 6.3% $ 1,240 3.88 t $ 3,270
11. Spain 1.44 trillion -0.8% $31,250 1.39 t $30,360
12. Russia 1.41 trillion 2.5% $10,030 2.16 t $15,330
13. Australia 1.13 trillion 1.7% $52,290 .84 t $39,020
14. Mexico .89 trillion 3.0% $ 7,890 1.67 t $14,830
15. South Korea .88 trillion 2.8% $17,810 1.42 t $28,700
16. Netherlands .81 trillion 0.4% $49,250 .66 t $40,080

add to China
Hong Kong .22 trillion 2.8% $30,720 .31 t $43,180

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