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October 19, 2009

North Dakota Oil Production Reaches New Highs and United States Oil Production Back up to 2005 Levels



North Dakota oil production has reached new highs and the two month lag in monthly statistics will likely show about 250,000 barrels of oil per day in October or November. The latest monthly statistics are 231,252 barrels of oil per day (bopd) for August 2009.

Brigham Exploration Co. on Friday said that one of its wells in the Bakken Shale produced an initial rate of about 2,112 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

"Assuming three Bakken laterals per section, we could potentially drill over 240 net wells in our core Rough Rider area. If the Three Forks (formation) is also productive, we could potentially drill twice that number of wells."




Saskatchewan has about 50,000 barrels of oil per day from the Bakken (and had a peak of 58,000 barrels of oil per day from the Bakken). The drop off was due to the financial crisis, but production should increase with technology increasing the number of fractures per well and financing improving.

Montana still has about 50,000 bopd from its part of the Bakken.

So Bakken production is about 220,000 bopd (North Dakota - less 110,000 barrels of non-Bakken Production, Saskatchwan and Montana) and is likely to increase to 260,000 bopd by the end of the year and into the 350,000 bopd range in 2010.

In April 2008, the Oildrum had an article predicting the Bakken oil production

Because of the highly variable nature of shale reservoirs, the characteristics of the historical Bakken production, and the fact that per-well rates seem to have peaked, it seems unlikely that total Bakken production will exceed 2x to 3x current rate of 75,000 BOPD.
(Montana and North Dakota combined)

Production is well over triple the 75,000 bopd.

Total US oil production has begun a slight reversal of its declining production since the 1970s where it peaked at 300 million barrels of oil per month.



If Bakken and Three Forks Sanish formation underneath the Bakken added 1 million barrels of oil per day then the US monthly numbers would have 30 million barrels of oil per month to offset any declining production.

Oil Pipeline Expansion should be Ready in 2010

Enbridge's North Dakota System Expansion Phase 6 (NDSE6) proposes to optimize its existing pipeline system through the installation of certain appropriate upgrades at existing pump station sites. These upgrades will enable (Enbridge Pipelines (North Dakota) LLC) EPND to transport an incremental 51,600 barrels per day (bpd) of crude petroleum from the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana to the Enbridge Clearbrook metering facility


The pipeline expansion should be ready in 2010

FURTHER READING
May 2009, first oil production started from the Chevron Tahiti Deep oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico.

Daily production is expected to ramp up to approximately 125,000 barrels of crude oil and 70 million cubic feet of natural gas before the end of the year (2009).


BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) said in Sept 10, 2009its Shenzi oil field in the Gulf of Mexico was exceeding nominal capacity of 100,000 barrels per day, and is achieving sustained rates of 120,000 barrels a day.

Shenzi started production in March this year, coming on stream three months ahead of schedule and within budget.

Murphy Oil started production on the Thunder Hawk project in the Gulf of Mexico

Thunder Hawk in Mississippi Canyon 734 commenced production on July 8th. Current production levels at this semi-submersible floating production unit are approaching 27,000 barrels a day of gross production from two wells.


2009 oil megaprojects from wikipedia

2010 oil megaprojects from wikipedia

USA Chinook, Cascade 3/2010 Petrobras ODW Crude 80,000 bopd
USA Clipper 7/2010 ATP_Oil_and_Gas ODW Crude 10,000 bopd
USA Perdido Hub (Great White; Tobago; Silvertip) 2/2010 Shell 100,000 bopd
USA Phoenix 2010 Helix OFF Crude 25,000 bopd
USA Telemark Hub (Mirage; Morgus; Telemark) 1/2010 ATP Oil 15,000 bopd

The Perdido hub project is on track for early 2010

The Shell Oil Perdido project is one of several projects that will be starting production between now and 2012 which should add 1 million bopd

Shell will boost its oil and gas output by a third, adding 1 million barrels a day to capacity by the end of 2012, according to company estimates. That would push Shell to 4.25 million, more than the 4.1 million BP anticipates for 2012.

Record investment in 2009 let Shell Chief Executive Officer Peter Voser expand programs including an oil-sands venture in Canada and the Sakhalin II project in Russia’s Far East. The outlook may help revive Shell’s London-listed shares, which have fallen this year even as competitors like BP gained.

The Hague-based Shell’s output averaged 3.25 million barrels of oil equivalent a day last year, while BP pumped 3.84 million. BP, which reversed two years of falling production in 2008, pushed output above 4 million in the second quarter.


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