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July 11, 2009

China Long Term Energy and Economic Plans

China new energy programs would involve investment of trillions and that new energy output was likely to exceed the targets set by the nation's overall energy and renewable energy plans. China target is to increase per capita income ten-fold by 2050 while increasing the per capita emissions by 50% to 6 tons per person.

Nation master has a table of per capita emissions by country. The US is at about 19-20 tons per capita.

The first phase of the program would see a strategic shift in three years to nuclear, solar, wind, biomass power and clean coal technologies - with investment opportunities worth as much as 3 trillion yuan ($438.9 billion), Liu said. Phase two encompasses the period up to 2020 and would entail far more investments, he pointed out.

The research panel of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the nations' top planner, has predicted that China's clean energy development strategy would create huge investment opportunities for private and State investors.

China needs to spend at least 40 trillion yuan by 2050 to go 'green', according to the expert panel of the NDRC's Energy Research Institute.

"Roughly, we need to spend an extra 1 trillion yuan every year to raise energy efficiency," Bai Quan, a senior member of the panel, said. The panel will publish its research findings on China's low-carbon roadmap this month.

Explaining the mathematical model that his colleagues had built, Bai said the money would be mainly used to introduce technologies that raise the energy efficiency of end-users in industry, construction and transportation.

If the investment showed results, it would mean the country's per capita greenhouse gas emissions would increase by only 50 percent during the 2010-50 period - to 6 tons from the present 4 tons. Per capita emissions stood at 3.58 tons in 2004.

The target could be made a national goal, given that per capita income is expected to increase 10-fold to 200,000 yuan by 2050 from 20,000 yuan in 2010.







China appears likely to have solid economic growth for 2009 and 2010.


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