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June 01, 2009

Reviewing my 2006 Technology Predictions

I made about 156 prediction back in March 2006 in a nanotech-now article.

I reviewed the predictions in September 2007


PREDICTION: Thousand CPU, FPGA simulator 2007-2008 - CORRECT
The RAMP Blue v3.0 rack, with 21 BEE2s, each with 48 cores, for a total of 1008 MicroBlaze cores

PREDICTION: Advanced microscopes with 0.5 angstrom accuracy and repeatability 2006-2008 - CORRECT
TEAM Microscope Project achieved 0.005 nanometer precision

PREDICTION: Cellular life found on Mars 2010+ (being confirmed)
Methane on Mars atmosphere could be from microbial life.

PREDICTION: Thousand+ CPU workstations- mainstream chip vendors 2009-2012 BORDERLINE Correct now but with new 512 cpu core Nvidia GT300, then dual GT300 workstations will clearly fit the prediction.
(Nvidia GPGPU chip now has 240 cores and if you have several GPGPUs in one workstation then you would get to thousand + CPU cores)

Nvidia S1070 box has 960 cores. The Cray Deskside CXC108 seems like it can load eight C1060 cards into it. (1920 cores, plus a few more cores from the companion Intel chips) Nvidia is mainstream chip vendor and counting core CPUs meets the requirement of thousand+ CPU workstations.

Nvidia is releasing the GT300 GPU later this year (40nm process) It is expected to have 512 cores. So a workstation with 2 of those would exceed 1000 cores.

Prediction: Protein engineering creates artificial ribosome 2014-2022 CORRECT EARLY
Synthetic ribosome was created by March 2009 by George Church and a Harvard team.

Some appear to be on track:
Carbon nanotube fiber inexpensive and with over 50GPa tensile strength 2014-2018
Gecko mimicing wallcrawling suits for military and enthusiasts 2008-2012
Customized [biological] cells 2010-2014 (close)
80-200mpg cars - mainstream, batteries, ultracapacitors 5-10 times
better 2008-2012 (close)
10 petaflop computer by 2012-2013 (DOE 20 petaflop on order and other 10 petaflop machines)
Clean fission (possible, projects underway, deep burn TRISO pebble fuel, li )
Nuclear Fusion (several promising projects)

Exoskeletons and personal robots widespread for disabled, manufacturing, and construction 2007-2012

Japan is selling exoskeletons for about $4200 for the elderly.
Lockheed HULC exoskeleton is getting field trials.

and again in February 2008.

Real-time biomarker tracking and monitoring 2008-2012
There are some proof of concept and small scale efforts on real time biomarker tracking and monitoring.

Real-time personalized exercise trainer and diet guide 2008-2012
I will find some examples of this and update this article.

Real-time personalized disease treatment 2008-2012
I will find some examples of this and update this article.

Customized cells 2010-2014
Venter and others are doing a lot of work here. Certain definitions of customized cells would clearly indicate that this has happened. But some major indisputal work is coming in this area.

Reviewed broadband and wireless developments and deployments plans for Japan and the rest of asia.

Fiber to the home (100Mbps-1000Mbps) 2010-2015 [Japan now, plus the fastest Docsis 3 cable communication can get to about 300 mbps.] Perhaps fiber 18-20% penetration worldwide. 12% [212 million homes for 2013] from Pyramid research. High speed cable and DSL could have another 20-50% of homes in the 100+ Mbps download range. Already true for millions in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, parts of China, Singapore and some places in other countries. Will spread significantly by 2010-2015.

Nextgen communication (1000Mbps-10000Mbps) 2013-2020 [upgraded 10 Gbps/10000 Mbps fiber speed, rolling out in Japan next year by Oki Japan. Easy to upgrade the components for faster speed because the same fiber is used as earlier rollouts]

Wireless superbroadband (50-1000Mbps) 2009-2012 [the faster versions of whitespace modems, Advanced 3.5G mobile and 4G mobile, faster wimax implementations, free space optics]

UPDATE: Fujitsu demonstrated 10 Gbps [10,000 Mbps] millimeter wireless and plans to commercialize by 2012.

Advanced plastic circuits, computing, monitors and energy gathering -walls, roofs, desktops 2009-2012
I will find some examples of this and update this article. Beyond what I had in the Feb 2008 article.

Quantum computing 100 qubits 2010-2014
Dwave Systems will likely be selling its 128 qubit systems commercially in 2009.

One billion digital video cameras posting online realtime; personal privacy is history 2008-2012
Video cameras in cellphones (smartphones) should make this happen

Gigapixel cameras common 2009-2015
Red Camera company is likely to make this happen. Backplane scanning cameras are already making gigapixel images and cameras that have systems for taking multiple shots and then "stitching" the digital images together are current ways to get a gigapixel.

10 petaflop computer 2012-2013 IBM is targeting 2011-2012 for a 20 petaflop machine for the DOE

Spintronics success, boosts hard drive capacities and low energy computing 2007-2011
I will find some examples of this and update this article.

Optical interconnects connect CPUs directly at 100 Gbps+ 2012-2018
I will find some examples of this and update this article. Beyond what I had in the Feb 2008 article.

DNA nanotechnology creates nanotools and parts 2010-2015
DNA nanotechnology is making 3D components, systems and placing metal nanoparticles.



China second largest economy in straight currency conversion measures 2013-2015 This is likely to happen early. Possibly as early as the end of 2009 and definitely in 2010.

China largest economy in PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) terms 2009-2012
An adjustment of the accepted purchasing power parity calculations (reducing China's GDP via PPP by 40%) has delayed the likely date of China's economy passing the USA in GDP-PPP to 2013-2014).

Jet Air taxi only covered a hundred or so of the 5000 regional airports by the end of 2008
Air Taxi services cover part of the USA

Air Taxi Association (ATXA) companies announced full support to DayJet customers and communities following DayJet’s decision to close SATSair, ImagineAir, and North American Jet provide on-demand air transportation to all 60 of DayJet’s affected communities, said AXTA President Joe Leader.

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