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March 10, 2009

Chinas 2008 and Future Economy


China ended 2008 with a GDP of 30.1 trillion yuan, which is $4.4 trillion at current exchange rates 6.84 to 1 USD.

Japan’s GDP for 2008 was 510.2 trillion yen [@98 yen to 1 USD this is $5.2 trillion.]

Japan's GDP dropped at an annual pace of 12.7 percent in the October-December, 2008 period.

Japan is likely to have about -3.8% or more negative GDP contraction. If China has 7% GDP growth and China exchange rate stays constant with the US dollar then China will pass Japan if the exchange rate goes to about 105 yen to the US dollar.


Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK/Ma US GDP
2007 25.77 13 7.3 3.77 3.97 13.8 Past Germany
2008 30.1 9 6.85 4.4 4.6 14.3
2009 32.2 7 6.8 4.7 4.9 14.0 Passing Japan
2010 35.1 9 6.2 5.7 5.9 14.1 Past Japan
2011 38 9 5.6 6.8 7.0 14.6
2012 41 9 5.1 8.0 8.2 15.0
2013 45 9 4.7 9.6 9.8 15.4
2014 49 9 4.2 11.7 11.9 16.0
2015 53 9 3.8 14.0 14.3 16.6
2016 58 9 3.5 16.6 16.9 17.2
2017 62 8 3.2 19.4 19.7 17.8 Past USA
2018 67 8 3 22.3 22.6 18.5
2019 73 8 3 24.3 24.6 19.2
2020 78 8 3 26.2 26.5 19.9
2021 85 8 3 28.2 28.5 20.6
2022 90 8 3 30.4 30.7 21.4
2023 97 8 3 32.7 33.0 22.1
2024 105 8 3 35.3 35.6 23.0
2025 113 8 3 38.0 38.3 23.8
2026 121 7 3 40.6 40.9 24.7
2027 129 7 3 43.4 46.3 25.6
2028 139 7 3 46.3 45.6 26.5
2029 147 7 3 49.5 49.8 27.5
2030 158 7 3 52.9 53.3 28.4







Some analysis of China's 2009 economic situation. China fiscal deficit would be 2.92% of GDP. In comparison, the US fiscal deficit for 2009 would take up 12.5% of its GDP. China has room to increase stimulus while staying near reasonable deficit numbers.

Foreign Policy looks at China's numerological obsession with 8% growth.


Seeking alpha has an article that the yen could be too high.

FURTHER READING
China passes Germany to become 3rd largest economy

Previous post start of credit crisis assessment

Comparison of historic GDP numbers between China and the USA
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