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November 12, 2008

IEA World Energy Outlook


The International Energy Agency has made a new comprehensive forecast of world energy from now until 2030.

The conclusions are:
Current energy trends are patently unsustainable —socially, environmentally, economically
- Oil will remain the leading energy source but...
> The era of cheap oil is over, although price volatility will remain
> Oilfield decline is the key determinant of investment needs
> The oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change, with national companies in the ascendancy
- To avoid "abrupt and irreversible" climate change we need a major decarbonisation of the world’s energy system
> Copenhagen must deliver a credible post‐2012 climate regime
> Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require significant emission reductions in all regions & technological breakthroughs
> Mitigating climate change will substantially improve energy security
- The present economic worries do not excuse back‐tracking or delays in taking action to address energy challenges


IEA report press release.

trends call for energy-supply investment of $26.3 trillion to 2030, or over $1 trillion/year. Yet the credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply-crunch that could choke economic recovery.

The findings of an unprecedented field-by-field analysis of the historical production trends of 800 oilfields indicate that decline rates are likely to rise significantly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6% in 2030. “Despite all the attention that is given to demand growth, decline rates are actually a far more important determinant of investment needs. Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity – roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline”, Mr. Tanaka added.










FURTHER READING
6 page fact sheet

Key graphs 1.6 Megabytes

13 page executive summary pdf
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