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October 17, 2008

Historic Comparison of China versus United States GDP

Nationmaster.com has historical GDP figures from the World Development Bank.

GDP figures by country for 2006

GDP figures for 2007 from the Worldbank

IMF GDP estimates made in 2008 for 2008 through 2013

Currency history can be examined here at oanda.com

China revised GDP growth in 2006 for 1973-2004 with the 2005 economic survey.

Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth.. Yuan/USD. China GDP  US GDP  Japan  China%of US
2000  9.92           8.4    8.27      1.20       9.76    4.65    12.3%
2001  10.6           8.3    8.27      1.32      10.1     4.09    13.1%
2002  11             9.1    8.27      1.45      10.42    3.90    13.9%
2003  13            10.0    8.27      1.64      10.92    4.23    15.0%
2004  15.9          10.1    8.27      1.92      11.68    4.58    16.4%
2005  18.31          9.9    8.1       2.23      12.42    4.53    18.0%
2006  20.94         10.7    7.97      2.67      13.2     4.34    20.2%
2007  24.66         11.9    7.6       3.38      13.8     4.38    24.5%
2008e 27.0           9.6    6.75      3.95      14.3     4.87    27.6%


2000-2004 China increased 34% from 12.3% to 16.4% against the USA and the 2004 economy was 60% larger than 2000. The US GDP increased 19.6% over the same time.

2004-2008 China increased 68.3% from 16.4% to 27.6% against the USA and the 2008 economy is 106% larger than the 2004 economy in US dollars. 2008 China is 68.5% larger in yuan terms than 2004 China. 49.3% would be from the calculated GDP growth and the remainder from some other statistical factor. The US economy increased 22.4% over the same time. The currency has moved about 22.5% [currently 21%, expect some more movement by the end of 2008].

Repeating the 2000-2004 time frame with 34% moves would place China passing the US economy in the 2025-2028 period. However, this would mean the US currency would stabilize at current exchange rates.

Repeating the 2004-2008 time frame with 68.3% moves would place China passing the USA in 2018. The exchange rate would be 4.1 yuan to one US dollar.

Averaging the percentage change would mean 51% changes for each four year period. This would project a 2021 passing date for China.

China could start to grow slower than it did from 2000-2004. The United States seems unlikely to grow faster from 2009-2012 than it did from 2000-2004. China's currency seems likely to continue to strengthen. This site projects China's currency to strengthen at a faster rate than 2004-2008. The Chinese yuan did not start to be partially floated until June 21, 2005. This site believes that China's new economic census which will be done about the end of 2009 will show a 5-8% increase in China's GDP figures. Therefore, the predicted passing year for China is 2017, with 2016 if the currency appreciation is very strong and 2015 only if China has exceptionally strong economic growth, strong currency and the statistical adjustment is maximized and the US economy performance is very bad. This site could see passing date slip to 2021 if China's economic and currency performance is in the lower range of projections and the US economy has very strong growth.

Previous relevant article: China will be a superpower in spite of aging population and pollution.

China's middle class is emerging now

China's urbanization alone will add 70+% of GDP between now and 2020.

China is building out energy, communication and transportation and other infrastructure for a fully modern, environmentally clean and advanced economy.



Projected GDP:
Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth.. Yuan/USD... China GDP China+HK/M US GDP
2009 29.6            9.0    6.2         4.8      5.04        14.3
2010 32.3           10.0    5.6         5.8      6.04        14.4           Past Japan
2011 35.5           9.5     5.1         7.0      7.25        14.7
2012 38.9           9.5     4.7         8.2      8.50        15.2
2013 42.5           9.5     4.5         9.5      9.87        15.6
2014 46.6           9.0     4.2        11.1     11.46        16.1
2015 50.8           9.0     3.9        12.9     13.25        16.6
2016 55.3           8.0     3.7        14.9     15.32        17.1
2017 59.8        7.5      3.6         16.8     17.21        17.6
2018 64.3           7.0     3.4       18.8     19.24        18.1    Past the USA
2019 68.8           7.0     3.3       21.0     21.42        18.7
2020 73.6           7.0     3.1       23.4     23.85        19.2
2021 78.7           6.0     3.1       25.5     26.02        19.8
2022 83.4           6.0     3.0       27.6     28.13        20.4
2023 88.4           5.0     3.0       29.9     30.41        21.0
2024 92.9           5.0     2.9       32.0     32.57        21.6
2025 97.5           5.0     2.8       34.3     34.88        22.3
2026 102.4          5.0     2.8       36.7     37.36        22.9
2027 107.5          5.0     2.7       39.4     40.02        23.6
2028 112.9          5.0     2.7       42.2     42.86        24.3
2029 118.5          5.0     2.6       45.2     45.91        25.1
2030 124.5          5.0     2.6       48.4     49.17        25.8   Close to double the USA



From the Economist, China is not overly export dependent.

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