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September 08, 2008

Prediction: McCain will Win US Presidential Election

There is definitely risk in this prediction, but this site is predicting that John McCain will win the 2008 US Presidential election.

The polls are very close to even between Obama and McCain, with some showing McCain leading and others showing Obama. The bettors still have an edge for Obama.

UPDATE:
The prediction was wrong. McCain lost and Obama won. McCain did a little better than some of the polls were showing. The financial crisis and McCain's inferior performance was his undoing. McCain needed to indicate that "I have been lifelong campaigner for small government and deregulation except in a financial crisis of this nature when IMF and other studies of similar financial problems in other countries show that financial plans do not work other than direct injection of capital into banks." McCain probably should have voted against the $150 billion of pork added onto the bailout that was passed. "A bailout is necessary but one without pork."

As noted the prediction was predicated on no substantial deterioration in the US economy. Substantial deterioration happened.
END UPDATE


The site is expecting that the US economy will not deteriorate substantially between now and the November election.

Oil prices will be in the $90-110 range over this time.

Most of the presidential and vice-presidential debates over the last two decades have not been events that majorly altered the courses of elections. Sarah Palin is predicted to perform adequate to good in her debate with Biden.

This site will also predict a majority government election win for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives in Canada for the recently called elections. [This is a far less risky call with polls strongly running in Harper's favor.]

UPDATE:
The prediction of a majority government for the Conservatives in Canada was wrong. They won a stronger minority government.
The McCain victory prediction is looking like a failed prediction, but there is still a few weeks left. The original caveat was that the US economy would not deteriorate and that failed to happen with the credit crisis.
END UPDATE

This site correctly called Palin as the Republican Vice presidential pick on June 4, 2008. This site was wrong about Hillary Clinton being the Democratic Vice Presidential pick at the same time. The mistake was more Obama's in that a Hillary Clinton pick would likely have won the presidential election for the Democrats.

This site correctly predicted the 2008 Taiwan presidential election in May of 2007.
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