August 13, 2008

US and Global Oil market Forecast 2008 to 2009

US Oil Supply
In 2008, total domestic crude oil output is projected to average 5.15 million bbl/d, up slightly from the 2007 average of 5.10 million bbl/d. Production growth in the Lower-48 region is expected to more than offset declines in Alaskan output. In 2009, total production is projected to increase to 5.36 million bbl/d, due mostly to the Thunder Horse and Tahiti platforms coming on-stream in late 2008 and 2009, respectively. This projection includes an expectation of hurricane-induced outages of about 10 million barrels for the offshore region in 2008. Fuel ethanol production is projected to increase from an annual average of 430,000 bbl/d in 2007 to 590,000 bbl/d in 2008 and to 650,000 bbl/d in 2009.

US Oil Consumption
During the first 5 months of 2008, total petroleum consumption fell by an average of almost 900,000 bbl/d from the same period in 2007. During June and July, the year-over-year declines narrowed to just over 400,000 bbl/d. The year-over-year declines in consumption are not expected to be as large over the forecast period, with 2009 average total consumption about 120,000 bbl/d lower than the 2008 average.

Global Oil Supply
If new projects come online as now anticipated, total non-OPEC supply is projected to rise by about 510,000 bbl/d in the second half of 2008 and by 850,000 bbl/d in 2009 compared with year-earlier levels. This compares with a 330,000 bbl/d decline in non-OPEC supply recorded during the first half of 2008. Non-OPEC supply growth through 2009 is expected to be led by Brazil, the United States, and Azerbaijan.

OPEC crude oil production is expected to rise to 32.9 million bbl/d during the third quarter of 2008, up from 32.3 million bbl/d in the second quarter. The forecast assumes that Saudi Arabia will maintain its July 9.7 million bbl/d production level through the third quarter, representing a 400,000 bbl/d rise from second quarter levels. OPEC crude oil production is projected to drop to about 32.4 million bbl/d in the fourth quarter of 2008, and to decline to 31.6 million bbl/d in 2009. Lower crude production combined with planned increases in OPEC total liquids production capacity suggests OPEC surplus crude production capacity could increase from 1.2 million bbl/d currently to about 3.6 million bbl/d by the end of next year.

Global Oil Consumption
Preliminary data indicates that global consumption rose by roughly 500,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) during the first half of 2008 compared with year-earlier levels, as a 1.3-million bbl/d rise in consumption outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was partially countered by an 800,000 bbl/d drop in U.S. consumption compared with year-earlier levels. Total world oil consumption is expected to grow by a little over 1 million bbl/d during the second half of 2008 and by almost 1 million bbl/d in 2009 compared with year-earlier levels. The projection for 2009 consumption is about 460,000 bbl/d lower than last month's assessment, reflecting lower expectations for consumption in the United States and other OECD countries.

Congratulations! Now you can use SolidOpinion commenting system in all its magnificence! Click the link to get your password.

Форма для связи


Email *

Message *