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August 05, 2008

Prediction: Dark Knight will top Titanic United States Box Office

This is a small prediction on a trivial topic. Dark Knight will earn more than the non-inflation adjusted total of Titanic.

This Mondays numbers were 45% over the Dead Man's chest numbers, which could be an indication of longer legs than Dead Man's chest. An extra $4 million this week if the pattern holds throughout the week. An informal poll of people I know indicate more of a willingness to watch Dark Knight a second time than Dead man's Chest. Especially to watch Dark Knight on Imax (Imax showings were sold out several days in advance early on). If the 45% weekdays over Dead Mens Chest effect is all there is then that would put DK at about $560M with the the slightly longer stay in theaters out to Week 15. I would say $500M on 38th to 45th day of release. There would need to be another wave of repeat viewings at about weeks 5-10 that carried through for an even longer stay to 20 weeks to get to 600M. Getting to 580-590M would be enough for "take out Titanic" marketing push for rabid fans. I believe DK will be showings its longer legs this week and the next four. The non-inflation adjusted Titanic total will be (barely)taken out. DK will be well short of the inflation adjusted total of $900M. DK will also not be near Titanics World Wide total

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