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August 20, 2008

IEA oil market report

The August 12th IEA oil market report shows global oil supply increased by 890 Kb/d in July to 87.8 Mb/d. Norway, Canada, Argentina and Brazil underpinned non-OPEC growth of 520 Kb/d, amid a lull in seasonal maintenance elsewhere. Growth in non-OPEC output now averages 455 Kb/d for 2008 and 665 Kb/d for 2009, after 425 Kb/d in 2007.

OPEC July crude supplies rose by 145 Kb/d to 32.8 Nb/d. Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Iran all saw higher output, although over 0.5 Nb/d remains shuttered in Nigeria. Effective OPEC spare capacity is 1.5 Mb/d, but should rise by end-2008 and through 2009.

Global oil product demand for 2008 remains unchanged at 86.9 Mb/d (+0.9% or 0.8 Mb/d versus 2007). Demand in 2009 is nudged up 70 Kb/d to 87.8 Mb/d (+1.1% or 0.9 Mb/d versus 2008). Growth is driven by projected non-OECD demand, largely unchanged at 38.3 Mb/d in 2008 and 39.7 Mb/d in 2009.
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