16% of power by 2030 (about 1400 TWh, 200+GW)
A projected total generation of 8472 TWh and an installed capacity of 1775 GW by 2030 means that China will equal the current levels of production and capacity in the USA and the European Union combined.
China is expected to have 311 GW of hydropower in place by 2020, meeting the government target, and 380 GW in 2030. Hydropower is expected to rise to over 1000 TWh in 2030, but its share of total power output will fall from 16 per cent to 12 per cent. The target for wind power is expected to be exceeded, with wind power reaching 42 GW in 2020 and 79 GW in 2030.
China has made considerable progress in the implementation of state-of-the-art coal fired generation technologies, by building larger, more efficient power plants. China added 18 GW of supercritical plant in 2006, bringing total supercritical capacity to about 30 GW. There are about 100 GW of supercritical plant on order, implying that the share of supercritical technology in new capacity will increase significantly over the next few years.
After 2015, new coal power stations will probably be as efficient as those built in the OECD. The average gross efficiency increases from 32 per cent in 2005 to 39 per cent in 2030, bringing it much closer to the OECD average of 42 per cent by 2030. Furthermore there will likely be a greater implementation of cleaner technologies such as supercritical, ultra-supercritical and integrated gasification combined-cycle plants.