August 11, 2008

Adding other countries together to equal China's GDP and population

China's population estimate 1.33 billion in 2007 (0.6% increase) Add in Hong Kong and Macau 8 million. Total population in 2008 1.35 billion. This analysis was related to a question from Tom Craver, what would China's GDP look like if you split it into two countries ?

The overall GDP was 3.3 trillion (2007) and heading to over 4 trillion at the end of 2008 with GDP growth and exchange rate increases. The future GDP of China will be rising quickly. the IMF thinks about 7 trillion by 2013 and others believe closer to or exceeding the $14 trillion PPP figure in 2013 because of a more rapidly strengthening chinese currency. The rapid rise in nominal GDP (exchange rate basis) means that the additive country mix to get the equivalent of China is rapidly changing. China is adding a Belgium (10 million) in population each year.

By 2013, China is either something in the range of a Germany in GDP or adding a Germany and Japan in GDP. The population of China in 2013 will be about 1.4 trillion.

As fast as China's national GDP is growing, the 4 richest Chinese provinces plus Shanghai are growing at 14% per year. The wealthiest are growing even faster. Plus their population is growing with more migration from poorer provinces.

Currently, the bottom one billion would approximate the economy of India but would be richer by 200% [US$2 trillion, or kind of like India plus Mexico with a bit fewer people] and the then the top 350 million (including Hong Kong) would be like Brazil but richer and more populated by 60%.

By 2020, when China will likely have passed the economies of Europe and the United States. China will be equal to a supersized Europe population with comparable economy or Europe plus India to equal population and GDP.

The top 4 provinces in China in terms of GDP plus Shanghai and Hong Kong.

Guangdong 3.3 trillion yuan (2008)
[US$480 billion, $5k/per cap]
Shandong 2.7 trillion
[US$390 billion, $4k/per cap]
Jiangsu 2.6 T yuan
[US$380 billion]
Zhejiang 1.9 T yuan
[US$280 billion]
Shanghai US$165B(U$9000 per cap)
Hong Kong US$218B in 2008

330 million people
US$1.9 trillion GDP.

The Guangdong provincial GDP has jumped from 1350.2 billion RMB in 2002, to 3060.6 billion RMB in 2007, with an average annual growth of 14.5%. About US$500 billion. Its ratio in proportion to the national GDP increased from 1/9 to 1/8. Guangdong’s GDP, after overtaking those of Singapore and Hong Kong, has surpassed that of Taiwan. Guangdong’s GDP per capita has reached 4000 US dollars. Guangdong population at the end of 2007 is 94.49 million

Is China's economy being statistically underestimated

China's economic projection

List of China's administrative divisions bu GDP

Jiangsu population (2006) 75,495,000 (5th)
GDP (2007) CNY 2.56 trillion (3rd) CNY 33,689 (5th) per cap GDP

Zhejiang Population (2004) 47,200,000 (11th)
GDP (2007) CNY 1.86 trillion (4th) CNY 37,128 (4th) per capita

In 2007, the nominal GDP for Shandong was 2.59 trillion yuan (US$340 billion). It's GDP per capita was 27,723 yuan (US$3,646), ranking seventh.

Shanghai 18.5 million, GDP US$157.8 billion (7th), per cap US$8,949 (13th) [2007]

Форма для связи


Email *

Message *