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June 11, 2008

Updates on World Oil Production and Demand


IEA (International Energy Agency) weekly oil report was issued June 10. Global oil product demand is expected to average 86.8 mb/d in 2008, 80 kb/d below last month’s estimate, following the reduction of price subsidies in several non-OECD countries. Global growth is cut even more steeply by 230 kb/d to +0.9% or +800 kb/d when historical upward revisions to 2006 and 2007 data are factored in.

Global oil supply rebounded by 490 kb/d in May to average 86.6 mb/d, lifted by higher OPEC crude supply. The rise however comes after extensive downward revisions to 1Q08 non-OPEC production and lower biofuels and NGLs for the rest of this year. Despite this, a recovery in non-OPEC output is forecast for the second half of 2008.

World Oil Demand is still larger than supply by 1 million b/d.

The US EIA (Energy Information Administration) posted their May, 2008 International Petroleum Monthly on June 9, 2008.


In thousands of barrels per day. Oil Production.

Time Period USA P. Gulf OAPEC OPEC World
2008 January..E 8,624 23,979 25,121 36,594 85,530
February E 8,625........24,208 36,885 85,827
March...PE 8,664 24,219 25,361 36,784 85,730
2008 3Mth AvgPE 8,638........24,134 36,751 85,693



The Persian Gulf countries are Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Production from the Kuwait-Saudi Arabia Neutral Zone is included in Persian Gulf production.
OAPEC: Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
OPEC: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.

FURTHER READING
The Full IEA Oil Market Report. 60 page PDF.

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