May 15, 2008

No peak yet, New high for World Oil supply, 293,000 more barrels of oil per day

World Oil production figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) International Petroleum monthly for February 2008 reached a new high of 85.921 million barrels of oil per day. 36.881 million barrels of oil per day from OPEC in February. 74.657 million barrels of oil per day world oil production including lease condensate which is up from 74.431 millions barrels of oil per day in January, 2008.

This was an increase from the January, 2008 figure of 85.628 million barrels of oil per day.

When the April figures are released in two months, there will be an additional 42,000 barrels of oil per day from new offshore production from Brazil.

This 42 thousand bpd difference was the outcome of new wells going online at the P-52 and P-54 platforms, both in Roncador, at the P-35, in Marlim, and at the PPM-1, in Pampo. Production being kicked-off at FPSO-Cidade de Rio das Ostras, on March 31, in the Badejo field, also in the Campos basin, contributed to this mark as well.

Petrobras’ daily production capacity is expected to grow an additional 500,000 barrels in 2008, when four more platforms kick-off their operations, three of which in the Campos Basin and one in the EspĂ­rito Santo Sea. Furthermore, the five platforms that started producing in 2007 are also slated to reach their maximum capacities during the year.

Saudi Arabia started production at the Khursaniyah field in April, 2008 and it should be producing 300,000 bpd in May, 2008. It should be pumping 500,000 barrels a day in 2009.

Megaprojects for oil for 2008 and 2009


Glen said...

...all this talk about the increasing oil streams but nary a word about fields in decline. This discussion needs some balance to be credible. And one month at a minor increase to a new monthly high does not prove a thing about when oil production will peak.

bw said...

Yes, there are fields in decline and new wells in the Bakken also have decline from initial production rates. I have had an article about that.

Bakken oil wells tend to go to about 60% of the initial production.

In the last few years about, 3-4 million bpd of new oil production was added but overall oil productin was flat. So that appears to be the ballpark of the level of decline in oil. So by adding 6-8 million bpd of new production you get about 3-4 million bpd of increase over a year. This is the current trend for Jan and Feb of 2008.

A 293,000 bpd increase to a new high is showing that 2005 was not the peak in oil production. It shows that oil did not peak in a prior year which some peak oil people have and continue to claim.

Continuing increases this year show that 2008 is probably not the peak year.

The longer it is not the peak year then the more time there is for more biofuels to be produced and for other energy to be developed and for adjustments to be made.

Several hundred other articles on energy and efficiency have been written and shown on this site. That content will not be repeated in every article.

Snake Oil Baron said...

There is one big problem though. When oil is discovered in territory controlled by a rich democratic nation it is politically sensitive to exploit and when it is discovered in a less developed nation it separates the rulers from any dependence on tax money from their citizens which fuels corruption. While fossil fuel finds like the ones mentioned are encouraging, I would also hope that current development of more distributed, decentralized, renewable energy sources helps to lower our dependency on this single source, thereby reducing the political power that fossil fuels transfer to governments.

More research into industrial, transportation and residential energy efficiency would help too. Every unit of energy that is saved helps to undermine oligarchs who are dependent on us as a market while making our world less stable.

Unfortunately, big finds of fossil fuels help remove the incentive to make these efficiency gains and to invest in new energy sources. It is we in the industrialized nations which are best able to develop alternative energies and develop efficiency gains but if we don't need to...

Big new reserves in (currently) stable territories might reduce the price that is being paid to certain tyrants in the short term but if it maintains a higher dependence on the resource worldwide it would not reduce the power of petroleum rich but freedom poor states.