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June 05, 2008

2016 Next Big Predictions

This site predicts that 2016 will be year of significant milestones for technology and other world changes. A prediction on a relatively trivial topic. Tokyo will hold the 2016 summer olympics. Three other cities are still in the running. 2016 will likely be the end of the second presidential term for the president elected in 2008. Most presidents are two term presidents.

2016 is a likely year when China's growing economy and strengthening currency combine to enable it to pass the size of the US economy. This is a milestone for change that has been evolving for decades, but will have ripened by passing a key metric.

Energy

Prediction by 2016: Over 100 new Conventional nuclear reactors will add over 120GW of nuclear power. 1000 billion kwh added (Some power from uprates of existing reactors in France, USA and other places)

Prediction by 2016: 100 GW of solar power will be added, but that will generate less power than the additional conventional nuclear power because of lower capacity factor


Advanced thermoelectronics will be providing energy savings on car air conditioning and electronics by 2010 and providing more efficient co-generation for cars and trucks by 2014 Thermoelectrics will also provide more efficient full size refrigerators (currently used in beer coolers)

Prediction: Durable [able to operate at higher temperatures] ZT 10+ thermoelectronics will be able to capture 35% of the waste heat of nuclear, coal and natural gas reactors. This will be deployed to capture over 50GW of power by the end of 2016.
There will also be deployment on freight trucks to increase fuel efficiency by over 10%.

2012 first completion of a uranium hydride mass producible nuclear reactor

Prediction by 2016: 200+ of the 25 MW electricity and 70 MW thermal reactors deployed. Total 5GW electrical and 14GW thermal power. Primarily used for oilsand and oilshale oil recovery.

The 335MW IRIS (International Reactor Innovative & Secure) will likely be first deployed in 2015 The first IRIS unit will take three years to construct with a subsequent reduction to only two years.

By 2016: 30GW of geothermal power added worldwide

Prediction: Inertial confinement fusion will be shown to achieve greater than breakeven energy by 2013. Deployments will be limited in 2016 due to the need to refine the systems for commercialization. Tri-alpha energy, Focus fusion and the General Fusion approaches will have successful prototypes or will have become dead ends.

Prediction: Over 1.5 million bopd from the US portion of the Bakken oilfield by 2016.

Prediction: Over 2 million bopd will be added to production in the oilsands.

Prediction: Biofuels will be over 60 billion gallons per year in 2016 [more than the UN prediction. Triple instead of double current production] The 60 billion gallans is equal to 4.5 million bopd. Algae oil production, conversion of waste into oil and cellulose biofuels will produce more.

Blacklight power and cold fusion recently had claims which if true could have substantial impact by 2016.



Computers, cars and medicine
Prediction: 100 petaflop computer by the end of 2016

Prediction: Over 20 million hybrid and electric cars worldwide by 2016.
A few thousand will be 175 mpge race cars like the one here.


Prediction: 80% fewer deaths from cancer.
Biomarkers and imaging for cheap and successful and widely deployed cancer testing.
GIFT cancer treatment

Prediction: By 2016 higher than room temperature superconductors will have been developed

Prediction: by 2016, the first effective longevity treatments will have been introduced to calorie restriction mimicking drugs

Prediction: By 2016 Myostatin inhibitors will be used by over 5 million people

FURTHER READING
Previous review of predictions on the future

Technologies and developments to watch for 2008

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