April 12, 2008

Oil mega project status, Saudi, Russia, deepwater oil and Canada's oilsand

Oil Mega projects starting in 2008.

The complete list of megaprojects at the wikipedia [oil megaprojects] is for over 13 million barrels per day added. Plus there is all of the small 200-25000 barrel per day small wells. Like several hundred in the Bakken to offset any 4.5% decline. Ten of thousands of small rigs. As pointed out by Dan a reader, 2006, 2007 were flat oil production years so roughly 3.5-4 million b/d of megaprojects has gone to offsetting decline. So 3 to 3.5 million b/d is the projected excess from 2008, 2009. So it would be 6-7 million barrels per day to be added net of any decline for the end of 2009 and into 2010 as those new additions scale up. If the increase in large projects also indicates more small projects then say 0.5-1.5 million b/d each year from that increase.

So if we are 87.3 million b/d Jan 2008.
Then my prediction is a little over 90 million b/d at the end of 2008 (not the full 3.5-5 million b/d increase because of lag in scaling)
For the end of 2009, over 94 million b/d and for the end of 2010, over 97 million b/d.

OIL Projects 100,000 barrels of oil per day or larger, Big to smaller
Country Project Name Company Peak Yr Peak amt bopd
Saudi Arabia AFK Aramco 2009 500,000 [Abu Hadriya;Fadhili;Khursaniyah]
Russia Vankorskoye TNK-BP Rosneft 2017 420,000 bopd towards the end of 2008
Mexico Amatitlan PEMEX 2029 393,000
Saudi Arabia Hawiyah Aramco 2009 318,000 (NGL)
Azerbaijan ACG Phs III BP 260,000 [Q208]
USA Thunder Horse BP 250,000 End of 2008
Canada Cold Lake CNRL 2018 240,000
Nigeria Agbami Chevron 2010 230,000 [first oil Q308, ramped up Q309]
Nigeria Akpo Total 180,000 [Probably early 2009]
Brazil Marlim SM2 P-51 Petrobras 180,000 P-51 On track for mid-2008
Brazil Marlim Leste P-53 Petrobras 180,000 P-53 also on track second half 2008

Russia YK Lukoil 2009 150,000 [ramping up 2008-2009]
Kazakhstan Dunga Maersk 150,000
Canada Firebag; Steepbank Suncor 2010 140,000
Qatar Ras Laffan QP 140,000
Canada Horizon CNRL 135,000
Iran Azadegan P1 NIOC 2012 125,000
Norway Alvheim; Marathon 2009 120,000
Nigeria EA expand Shell 115,000
Iran Darkhovin P2 NIOC 2008 110,000
Brazil ML(FPSO C d Niteroi) Petrobras 100,000
Angola B15 Kizomba C (Mondo) ExxonMobil 100,000
Angola B15 KizC(Saxi;Batuque) ExxonMobil 100,000

Saudi Arabia announced on Thursday that they will start adding 500,000 bpd to its total capacity when the Khursaniyah field comes on stream this month. Abdulaziz al-Judaimi, vice president of new business development at Saudi Aramco said, "The Khursaniyah field will start producing within a month at 300,000 bpd and will eventually add 500,000 bpd to the country's production capacity."

The United states has the Thunder Horse deep sea oil project in the Gulf of Mexico, which should produce 1 billion barrels of oil with 250,000 barrels per day. The Bakken needs pipelines and refinery capacity to reach its full potential, which I think is (US and Canada combined) 250,000 bopd by 2008 and 500,000 bopd by 2010 and 1 million bopd by 2013 and 2 million by 2015. Bakken could go higher but then it would require new drilling technology advances for higher recovery. I think that will happen as well.

Brazil has some preliminary assessments of 33 billion barrels in their offshore oil.

Suncor 240,000 bpd in 2007, targeting 270,000-300,000 bpd average in 2008. Probably 350,000 bpd by yearend as still 248,000 bpd in April, 2008

The US part of the Gulf of Mexico could be producing a daily yield of 800,000 and accounting for 11 percent of US oil production by 2011. This would be follow up to the Jack2 test well by Chevron, which indicates 3-15 billion barrels of oil.

Saudi AFK production to start in June, 2008

from Jan 14,2008 London oilsands forum

Feb, 2008 Oil and Gas network 8 page report on the oilsands

Horizon oil phase I Q3 2008 for 110,000 bopd,later expanding to 232,000 b/d and 500,000 b/d. The Horizon section has 15 billion barrels of oil in place and current technology can recover 6-8 billion barrels.

OIL MEGAPROJECTS 2008 and 2009

The big one in 2009 is Saudi Arabia, Khurais 1,200,000 bopd

The Oildrum has an article with charts that look at additions and contractions in capacity on a country by country basis from 2002 to 2008.

Also, there was a separate analysis from the EIA that oil demand was increasing at less than 1 million b/d per year and in 2008 will increase by 1.3 million b/d. How demand changes (based on economic growth and changes) will effect the other side of the supply/demand and therefore oil price equation.

Oil fields in the USA

Canadian Natural gas deliverability 2007-2009

EIA on natural gas until 2030 The trend has been increasing reserves and increasing demand.


Dan said...

See Each year has a graph showing total new supplies:

2005: 4 million barrels/day
2006: 4
2007: 3.5
2008: 7
2009: 5
2010 4

So 2008 is up a few million barrels per day (supposedly), from the 2007 situation which supposedly was of little or no excess production capacity. How much time does 3 million extra barrels/day buy us before capacity is again even with demand? 1 year? 2, maybe, before demand grows to the break even point? So I think there is more to this story. But you know, the data could be suspect too. Who generates the data and what are their interests in publicizing it?

bw said...

The data was gathered by

1. Samuel Foucher
2. Stuart Staniford
3. Tony Eriksen
4. Publicus 21:07, 10 December 2007 (UTC)
5. Phil Hart (talk) 06:10, 21 December 2007 (UTC)

The megaprojects taskforce.
Staniford writes for theoildrum and I think seekingalpha.

They got the info from reviewing 60-100 reports from the major oil companies. I got some new info by looking at the latest press and reporting on the biggest of the big in 2008 and 2009.

2009 shows it should also be adding 7 million b/d

bw said...

Dan it is another way to look at it as a theory that 3 million to 3.5 million b/d from megaprojects is needed to offset decline in production + small projects.

If decline is 4-5 million b/d and small projects is 1 to 2 million b/d then between 2 to 3 million b/d is needed to offset decline.

al fin said...

Very nice, Brian.

It looks as if production will barely keep up with demand, while keeping prices in the $100 bbl range.

It will take 5-10 years for the big investments in solar and biomass to start kicking in. Perhaps Craig Venter and his competitors will be able to show some progress in synth-bio and bio-energy by then as well.

Oil doesn't have to last forever. Just long enough for alternatives to begin kicking in fast and strong enough to support most of the infrastructure of civilisation.

Within 20 years, some of the miracles of nanotechnology should begin to hit the market.

Dan said...

Ok, so the bottom line as you see it is that the Hubbert Peak folks (and their Web sites) should just pack up and go away because we're just not there yet. As long as prices stay high (and they will) production will increase, at least until the high prices enable alternative sources of energy to mature to the point that they can take up the slack when peak oil finally does (yawn) wander by.

bw said...

It is worth keeping an eye on it.

We are past really cheap oil.
Plus there is peak lite where growing demand (from developed countries, China, India) pressures even modestly growing supplies.

Plus we should not be relaxed about it. If some of the big sources experience problems (say Iran from being attacked by the US or Nigeria with more unrest) plus there should not be messing around with ineffective policies.

But I think the talk about past peak and extreme decline is overdone.

Américain à Paris said...

Hi Dan,

Your forecast was horribly off. World oil production averaged 81.8 billion barrels per day. That includes shale oil and tar sands.