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April 07, 2008

Intel forecasts Moore's law to continue until 2029


Pat Gelsinger, head of the Digital Enterprise Division at Intel, says that Moore's Law will continue until 2029 with zettaflop supercomputers at that time. [link is to his Intel Developers Forum keynote address, 80 pages, From Petaflops to Milliwatts]

Pat expects by 2017 it will be possible to create a complete genetic simulation of a cell, which would require an exaflop (10 to the 18th power floating-point operations) per second.

I have covered Tensilica's configurable processors which could be one of several approaches to accelerating or at least maintaining Moore's law computer performance progress to exaflops and beyond

From a 38 page study of detailing petaflop and exaflop scale computing challenges

Some have expressed concerns that silicon will stop having performance improvement [from shrinking lithography stalling out] in as little as four years.



The Inquirer also has another quote from Pat Gelsinger on Moore's law from the same event.

"I compare Moore's Law to driving down the road on a foggy night, how far can you see? Does the road stop after 100 metres? How far can you go?

"That's what it's been like with Moore's Law. We thought there were physical limits and we casually speak about going to 10 nanometres. "We have work going on different transistor structures. Silicon has become scaffolding for the rest of the periodic table. We're putting these other structures into the materials. We see no end in sight and we've had 10 years of visibility for the last 30 years.


Intels chips now and future

Tukwila chip
- Quad-core with 30 MB cache core with 30 MB cache
- 2 billion transistors
- Multi-threading technology threading technology
- Intel QuickPath QuickPath interconnect interconnect
- Dual integrated memory controllers
- Estimate 2 times performance of dual core Itanium 9100 series
- Mainframe-class RAS

Dunnington 6 cores
- 45nm high-k technology
- 1.9B transistors
- 16 MB L3 cache
- Caneland socket compatible socket compatible
- Latest Intel virtualization technologies
- 2H’08



FURTHER READING
Press room for the Intel Spring 2008 developer's forum

Zettaflop architecture challenges

Frontiers of Extreme Computing 2007 workshop was held in Santa Cruz, CA October 21-25, 2007.

Zettaflop applications

Ab initio million-atom electronic structure simulations.


Communication challenge in ultradense computing devices
DARPA MoleApps–Aim: 10**15devices/ cm**3
17 nm half-pitch,3.5*10**11 /cm**2 demonstrated


Communication speed of 80 TB/s for full speed 2017 chips




4 comments:

Anonymous said...

So about how much computing power would one need to directly solve the protein folding problem using Schrodinger's equation? Anyone know or have a chart which estimates time vs # atoms/structure?

bw said...

Petaflop to Exaflop problem targets are described in this 38 page pdf

http://www.nccs.gov/wp-content/media/nccs_reports/Science%20Case%20_012808%20v3__final.pdf

Many protein and enzyme events of interest to biology and bioenergy
research are in the millisecond-to-second timescales [22, 23], which are orders of magnitude beyond those possible with today’s simulations. Exascale leadership systems will change this landscape, making these simulations routine.

Understand the complexity of
plant cell wall structure and its
relationship to recalcitrance
through large-scale (microbial
and plant cell wall structure and
cellulosome, etc.) simulations of
10 to 100 million atoms over
millisecond timeframes

Combine density functional
theory with evolutionary search
for complex materials or an
accurate combinatorial approach
to screen the best separation
material out of O(103)
compounds

Anonymous said...

Well, that's interesting and up to date...thanks!

There is so much more to computers than fancy computer graphics.

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately, nowhere on the graph is the computing cost of running the most recent Windows version :(