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March 17, 2008

Taiwan presidential election at the end of this week

ABC News' online coverage of the Taiwan presidential election, with most polls showing presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT with big or small leads.

Prediction markets also are forecasting a Ma Ying-jeou win in the Taiwan Presidential election at the end of this week (March 22, 2008).

I have had several articles on this and my prediction has also been that Ma Ying-jeou will win. I think this is a route to less tensions between China and Taiwan and will take the possibility of China invading Taiwan pretty much off the table. The steadily weakening US dollar is continuing to keep my prediction that Chinese will pass the US economy on an exchange rate basis in 2018 plus or minus three years on track. Originally had it at 2020 but have updated it based on recent trends.

The Yuan on March 17, 2008 is at 7.08 to the USD and 11.167 to the Euro.


Taiwan Political exchange is one such prediction market


5 comments:

Lobo7922 said...

I hope that everything goes as you predict in the Taiwan presidential elections and that the tensions reduce to normal levels.

DeadBeat Dad said...

China can invade Taiwan and put Taiwan under its' boot anytime it wants to. No one's gonna stop them.

The U.S. no longer has the military advantage to avert this, and pathetically at this point, we don't even have the moral authority, nor financial leverage.

Pathetic.

Nice job, George.

bw said...

1. Taiwan is not a military walkover for China. China does not have enough amphibious craft for a successful invasion. Taiwan has sufficient airforce to last for quite a while and possible even win an airwar with China.

2. If China did attack with missiles etc... Taiwan would be wrecked before any eventual victory. What would be the prize then ? Now a significant number in Taiwan would not mind eventual unification with China but an attack would put the vast majority of Taiwanese into resistance mode.

3. Think of the scale of "taking Taiwan". Think of WW2 and what it cost the US to the battle of Iwo Jima

Taiwan has dug in for decades. I lived in Taiwan for 8 months. When you drive through tunnels in the mountains, they have fortications inside them.

Taiwan has 290,000 active personnel and 1.68 million in reserve the active number is 14 times more than Japan had defending Iwo Jima.

However, as I noted there is no need to fight if there is a negotiated economic and later political joining.

bw said...

1. Taiwan is not a military walkover for China. China does not have enough amphibious craft for a successful invasion. Taiwan has sufficient airforce to last for quite a while and possible even win an airwar with China.

2. If China did attack with missiles etc... Taiwan would be wrecked before any eventual victory. What would be the prize then ? Now a significant number in Taiwan would not mind eventual unification with China but an attack would put the vast majority of Taiwanese into resistance mode.

3. Think of the scale of "taking Taiwan". Think of WW2 and what it cost the US to the battle of Iwo Jima

Taiwan has dug in for decades. I lived in Taiwan for 8 months. When you drive through tunnels in the mountains, they have fortications inside them.

Taiwan has 290,000 active personnel and 1.68 million in reserve the active number is 14 times more than Japan had defending Iwo Jima.

However, as I noted there is no need to fight if there is a negotiated economic and later political joining.

DeadBeat Dad said...

Well, let's hope you're right about Taiwanese deterrent capabilities, because the U.S. isn't gonna do sh*t in the event of a conflict.

We've already trashed our army, and I doubt we would now place our expensive toys to be blasted out of the sky or blown out of the water by a very capable People's Republic Army.