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March 22, 2008

Ma of the KMT wins the Taiwan Presidency - better relations with China ahead


As I had been predicting for nearly a year, Ma of the KMT won the Presidential election. He won by 58 to 41 over Frank Hsieh of the DPP

Ma's vote total topped the 7 million mark, a point at which it would be mathematically impossible for him to lose, the commission said.

The commission estimated that 75 percent of Taiwan's eligible voters cast ballots in the presidential race.



People want a clean a government instead of a corrupt one," Ma, also a former justice minister, told The Associated Press.

"They want a good economy, not a sluggish one. They don't want political feuding. They want peace across the Taiwan Strait. No war."

Hsieh, a former premier, conceded defeat in front of unhappy supporters, AP reported.


Ma is looking to make peace with China and open a common market with them.

Early moves are to open up many direct flights and transporation. Open up tourism from and to China from 270,000 visitor to Taiwan in 2007 up to 3.6 million by 2009. Those extra 3.3 million tourists could bring in a few billion in economic activity. Causing a boom in hotel building and bumping Taiwan GDP by 1%.

UPDATE: Some such as a Businessweek blog Eye on Asia has theorized that Cathay Pacific and Hong kong would be a loser from the Taiwan election. Because direct filghts would occur and the 270,000 visitors (more soon with the changes) would not need to fly through Hong Kong or use Cathay Pacific. I would disagree. Cathay Pacific and Dragon may not be big winners, but if the number of visitors between China and Taiwan shoots up by ten or twenty times, there could still not be a drop in the total number that pass through Hong Kong. 100% may have had to pass through Hong Kong before, but if 10% of a far larger number still choose to make a Hong Kong stopover then Cathay Pacific and Hong Kong do not lose.

China invading Taiwan over independence is pretty much off the table. [Although I never really believed it was seriously on the table. It was an occasional disruptive threat though. Missile launches into the Ocean and posturing and unproductive threats. Plus it was used as an excuse by the US military for more buildup.] Would Germany invade Austria now that they are part of the European Union ?

FURTHER READING
Another source with a more negative view of the result but a lot of details about taiwan. [Taiwan matters] and Michael Turtons other Blog, the View from Taiwan. Lots of interesting pictures

Taiwan and China

Chinas future economy and a prediction fom May, 2007 of the Ma victory

All of my Taiwan related articles

1 comments:

Lobo7922 said...

Good news, its nice to see that the world is moving toward mutual cooperation