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March 10, 2008

China is building more nuclear power 50+% faster than earlier plans


China will be building nuclear power at a faster rate than previously projected.

Zhang Guobao, a vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission long involved in energy planning, said he now expected installed nuclear power capacity of 60 GW by that date. Previously it was mentioned that China would have 40GW completed and 18GW under construction and that total could increase by 8GW for more interior province nuclear build. By 2030, China had previously announced goals of 160GW and possibly 300 reactors and 300+ GW by 2050. Hopefully China will be able to substantially exceed the previously announced goals for 2030 and 2050 by a large margin as well.

This could mean that China might be the second or fourth largest user of nuclear power by 2020. France currently generates 63GW from 59 reactors.

France should have 67GW from 61 reactors in 2020.

Japan generates 47.5GW from 55 reactors now and is building 18GW of more nuclear power. So Japan should be getting 66GW from nuclear power in 2020.

The USA has he most with almost 100GW from nuclear power

The [chinese] government has announced plans to add an astonishing 1,300 GW to its electrical generation capacity by 2020. (The U.S. is currently capable of generating 1,000 GW.) The goal is for 25-30% of this to come from clean and renewable technologies. But even if these ambitious targets are achieved, some 70% of China's electricity will still come from coal-fired plants in 2020. That's down from about 78% today.

Today, light and heavy industry accounts for nearly three-quarters of the country's energy use. As a result, China is not a particularly efficient consumer of power, lagging well behind Japan, the U.S. and other developed countries in the amount of economic output it generates for every gigawatt consumed. Hoping to become 20% more energy-efficient over the next 12 years, Beijing in 2006 ordered heavy industries and local officials to develop more judicious consumption strategies. The government also increased pressure on provincial governments to enact strict building codes to make new office buildings and shopping centers less wasteful.


Areva, France's nuclear company, plans to build more than 100GW of new nuclear power by 2030.

Canada is building more nuclear reactors. Particularly in Ontario with4 or more planned to displace all the coal power generation.

UK Secretary John Hutton told the Financial Times he expected the new generation of nuclear power stations to supply much more of the country's electricity than the 19 percent the existing ones deliver.
Britain said it was making 18 more sites available for the next generation of nuclear power stations and gave operators four weeks to pick the ones they wanted.


Wired looked at previous targets for China's non-fossil fuel energy

Chinese Government Renewable Energy Targets for 2020
Hydro: 300 gigawatts
Nuclear: 40 GW [so now the target is 60GW)
Biomass: 30 GW
Wind: 30 GW
Solar: 1.8 GW

Here is a presentation in 2007 for an alternative energy plan for China from now until 2030.



A revised 2030 scenario could have China generating 300GW or more from nuclear power. Especially with significant uprating of new reactors using annular fuel (50% more power) or better reactor designs that are easier to mass produce. Like the IRIS nuclear reactor or the Fuji Molten salt reactor or the Uranium hydride nuclear ["battery"] reactor.

Possible Energy Targets for 2030 for China
Hydro: 350 gigawatts
Nuclear: 300+ GW - 2400+ billion kwh
Biomass: 100 GW
Wind: 100 GW
Solar: 10 GW
Conservation and efficiency: for 40% reduction
Bringing the Twh down to 5000-6000 billion kwh for 2030 could drastically reduce the role of coal power in China.
I had a previous detailed look at China's hydroelectric build out plans

Possible near term successful development of nuclear fusion would radically alter the energy generation situation for the better.

1 comments:

Cyril R. said...

But the total coal power will increase more than 3x!

Little reason for optimism I'd say!