January 13, 2008

Taiwan election result as predicted, big KMT win

The KMT, pro-China party, won 81 of 113 seats in the legislative elections.

I have predicted that KMT victories in the legislative election and then in the presidential election in Taiwan would lead to better relations between Taiwan, China and the USA This is the first third of that prediction. Landslide legislative victory. Then a presidential victory by KMT's Ma and then the actual policy and relationship changes.

The size of the KMT landslide and the infighting going on with the DPP says to me that the Presidential election on March 22 looks like a slamdunk for KMT's Ma. The last 2004 election fake assassination only led to a raiser thin DPP election victory. I do not see how anything but massive (and massively transparent) voter fraud would be able to swing the election to the DPP in March.

Other earlier (since May 2007) places where I discussed this series of developments:
At the end of this article on technology predictions

One sentence deep in this article about China's military future

In the last third of this article on China's future economy

In the comments of this article on China's economy


kurt9 said...

Shui-bien Chen lost the election not because we antagonized China with his talk of Taiwan independence but because he was one of the most corrupt leaders in Taiwan.

Every time I traveled to Taiwan, I was told how corrupt Shui-bien Chen was and why he should be removed from office.

Traditionally, the Kuomintang has been corrupt as well, which is how Shui-bien Chen got elected in the first place. Hopefully, the Kuomintang has learned the lesson and will be less corrupt than in the past.

Taiwan is a plcce with a lot of "money" politics.

Al Fin said...

Corruption in Taiwan is no doubt a problem, but corruption in mainland China hovers over the fate of the world. In China, bloggers are murdered so the government can save face.

Everyone should understand how mainland Chinese corruption drives the environmental devastation of huge parts of Asia and the western Pacific. How that devastation is being exported to Africa and parts of South America.

China's economic numbers are inflated in many ways. One of the most destructive ways is by corrupt officials accepting bribes for huge projects that are shoddily built and destructive to the environment. But they raise the economic output numbers, so it is overlooked.