August 20, 2007

Possibilities and rumors of US War with Iran 2007/2008

Time magazine is reporting that various people in the CIA and in the US bureaucracy think that an attack against Iran nuclear facilities and the Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could happen within 6 months

Update: More discussions of the possibility for war with Iran

I had made a wildcard prediction of the possibility of war between the USA and Iran

The original prediction article is here

Alternet talks about possible war with Iran scenarios I would count an exchange of direct bombings as a war. Although such an exchange would likely not stop as a one of exchange but would likely escalate. The taking of the British prisoners was close and I would have counted it as at least a partial correct prediction if there had been deaths.

In regards to my wildcard prediction of war with Syria in 2008, there is rumbling of the USA encouraging Israel to hit Syria I would count a proxy war as a war.


Mary Christine Erikson said...

If we hit Iran, we could end up in a fight with their friends Russia, China, Brazil, North Korea, Mexico, and miscl.

bw said...

I do not think that war with Iran is the best way for the USA to achieve its goals.

Iran needs key parts from the USA and allies. The lack of such parts is preventing/hindering the proper repair and maintenance of oil infrastructure.

That being said, those countries that you list are not strong allies of Iran and would not fight with them. Iran has strong control over elements in Lebanon and influence over some of the Palestinians.

Opportunistically other countries would for ways to benefit from any US/Iran conflict.

An attack by the US on Iran would be from an unwillingness to be patient and clever using more subtle means.

Iran is working towards a nuclear bomb. I think even if they get it that this is a risk that can be managed. But then again I do not live in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem or New York. I think it would be a huge miscalculation on the part of Iran to use a nuclear weapon. If either the US or Israel were hit with a nuke, Iran and several other arab countries would be destroyed.

It also shows an unwillingness to use deterrence etc... from reigning in a nuclear Iran. If the current US administration feels that they cannot trust the next administration to do what they think should be done in the endgame of Iran completing a bomb then they have to act before the end of 2008 to ensure a disruption of Iran's progress to a nuclear bomb.

I think improving technology for remote detection of nuclear material and weapons is possible and that a nuclear Iran can be managed.

The current administration has a different calculation. If the chance of WMDs in Iraq was too great a risk then the real risk of WMD in Iran would be too great a risk.

Gaurav Singh said...

An attack by the US on Iran would be from an unwillingness to be patient and clever using more subtle means.

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