June 15, 2007

UBS GDP forecast for 2025 and 2050

I have put out my own detailed analysis of the China's economy passing the United States on an exchange rate basis by 2020

Andreas Hoefert, chief global economist at UBS has provided a long range projection for 2025 and 2050 using purchasing power parity (PPP) and a formula that takes into account such things as capital and labour growth.

Using this technique, the United States is today's largest economy, followed by the European Union, China, Japan, India and Germany. [Wikipedia has lists of countries by PPP GDP] They also have a list with estimates projecting for the current year

But things get more interesting in 2025, when China takes the No. 1 position, followed by the United States, the EU, India, Japan, Brazil and Indonesia. By 2050, India moves into the No. 2 position, behind China. As well, countries such as Pakistan, Mexico and Bangladesh crack the top 12.

As fast as China is expected to grow by 2050, he noted India is actually expected to grow even faster. Vietnam, which is not expected to make the top 15 largest economies by 2050, also has an excellent growth story to tell, given its young, educated workforce and stable political environment.


al fin said...

When the wealthiest nations are also nations with little regard for human rights, one cannot help but wonder about international relations in the future.

China's record of human rights is abominable, and India is still stuck too much in the third world to know what type of world its future leaders might choose to shape.

One can only watch and see.

bw said...

China has plenty of problems. My family lost and never recovered a lot of property back in the days of the communist initial takeover. A grandmother lost her life during the cultural revolution. Tianmen was foolish on the leaders part. Since the opening up of China it has clearly gotten a lot better. Property rights are far better protected. Although a lot of people got moved for hydro-projects. On the other hand without the hydro, a lot more would die from coal pollution.

The US and other nations are not perfect either. Corruption (Haliburton, money for lobbyists and those with politically connected businesses - richest counties are Loudon and Fairfax outside of DC, US also has eminent domain for forcing property sales etc...) and crime are big issues.

What specific aspects of human rights problems are you most concerned about ? And what objective statistics and information do you have for the level of the problems?

Number of people in prisons ?
Executions ?
Women's rights ?
Minority rights ?
Violations of Sovereignty of other nations ?
People killed by the military ?

what particular aspect are you worried will still be bad in China in 2015-2020 or later ?

Famii said...

Why would one believe that India would be a worse global citizen when it emerges than it is now?

Why would the world be worse with China as the largest economy?

What type of country was the US when it emerged in the first half of the twentieth a century?

What would onlookers have thought about the emerging leadership of a country that denied whole sections of its minority populations voice ,dignity and economic opportunity.

Or a country which developed weapons of mass destruction and used them unashamedly against civilian targets?