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May 29, 2007

China's One child policy status

There has been rioting over enforcement of China's one child policy

The central authorities had asked for positive financial incentives to support the population growth reduction plans. Local officials had forced some abortions.

The one child policy always had gaps and was intended for only one generation. It has reduced the population growth by 400 million by some estimates.

The growing wealth of the Chinese population appears likely to see the policy to continue to fade.

"The number of rich people and celebrities having more than one child is on a rapid increase, and nearly 10 percent of them even have three," Xinhua cited a survey by the Family Planning Commission as saying. A Chinese health official has also said that rural women were risking maternal heath by delivering babies in violation of the restrictions at home or in unregulated clinics.

"Some policy-breaking pregnant women, who dared not apply any financial aid of childbearing for fear of legal punishment, chose to deliver babies at home or in substandard private clinics," Xinhua quoted Vice Minister of Health Jiang Zuojun as saying in a separate report.

Under the family planning policies -- which aim to control the world's largest population of 1.3 billion -- China's urban dwellers are
generally allowed to have one child, while rural families can have two
if the first child is a girl.


In recent years, violations of the policy had been dealt with by smaller fines of up to 5,000 yuan, locals said. Up to 60,000 yuan per extra child.

Fine details

From wikipedia:
In reality, having one child has been promoted as ideal and the law
has been strongly enforced in urban areas, the actual implementation
varies from location to location.[1] In most rural areas, families are
allowed to have two children, if the first child is female, or
disabled.[2] Second children are subject to birth spacing (usually 3
or 4 years). Additional children will result in large fines.

The one child policy was designed from the outset to be a one
generation policy.[5] The one-child policy is now enforced at the
provincial level, and enforcement varies; some provinces have relaxed
the restrictions. Some provinces and cities such as Beijing permit two
"only child" parents to have two children. Henan province, with a
population of about 100 million, does not allow this exception



Households with 25000-40000 yuan per year. They can afford the lower fines.
2007 41 million households (20%) out of 205 million
2009 73 million households (32%) out of 220 million
2011 96 million households (40%) out of 240 million
2015 140 million households (50%) out of 280 million

Those with 40000-100000 yuan per year
2007 21 million households (10%) out of 205 million
2009 24 million households (11%) out of 220 million
2011 29 million households (12%) out of 240 million
2013 39 million households(15%) out of 260 million
2015 59 million households (21.2%) out of 280 million
2025 224 million households (60%) out of 373 million

Those who are richer 100,000+RMB/ year in household income are 0.6% in
2005 or about 1 million households. In 2015, they will be 6% or about
28 million households. In 2025, they are projected to be about 11% or
about 40 million household. The highest fines are no problem for this group.

1 comments:

kurt9 said...

China's one-child policy made sense back in the day when everyone was piss-poor and there was little economic opportunity. Today, China's economy is growing by leaps and bounds and there is lots of opportunity. I think the one-child policy is not so necessary. If anyones going to have lots of kids, I'd rather it be the Chinese than anyone else. The Koreans and Japanese are certainly not having many kids, as well as the west.