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April 10, 2007

UK Military think tank report on Futures already passed

Rear Admiral Chris Parry, head of the MoD's Development, Concepts & Doctrine Centre which drew up a 90 page report, which describes the assessments as "probability-based, rather than predictive". Most of the predictions reported in the Guardian are to happen before 2035. True they will be before 2035 because several have already happened and others have wrong facts. The UK paid for an incompentent futurist report. There should be some kind of futurist malpractice for reports that are this badly done.

2035 ? Some of the stuff has been around as a capability since the 1950's. It is just onto refined generations and capabilities and integrated more widely as part of standard tactics.

New weapons
An electromagnetic pulse will probably become operational by 2035 able to destroy all communications systems in a selected area or be used against a "world city" such as an international business service hub. The development of neutron weapons which destroy living organs but not buildings "might make a weapon of choice for extreme ethnic cleansing in an increasingly populated world".


Electromagnetic pulse weapons were already used (although on an
experimental basis) operationally 4 years ago at the start of the Iraq War 2.

The US Navy reportedly used a new class of highly secret, non-nuclear
electromagnetic pulse warheads during the opening hours of the Persian
Gulf War to disrupt and destroy Iraqi electronics systems. The
warheads converted the energy of a conventional explosion into a pulse
of radio energy. The effect of the microwave attacks on Iraqi air
defense and headquarters was difficult to determine because the
effects of the HPM blasts were obscured by continuous jamming, the use
of stealthy F-117 aircraft, and the destruction of Iraq's electrical
grid. The warheads used during the Gulf War were experimental
warheads, not standard weapons deployed with fielded forces.

The capability has been around since the 1950s. They are refining them and making the non-nuclear version a standard part of the arsenal.

However, as we head towards 2035 all photonic and hardened electronics that are resistant to e-bombs could become widespread and negate the e-bombs effectiveness.

unmanned weapons platfoms
The use of unmanned weapons platforms would enable the "application of lethal force without human intervention, raising consequential legal and ethical issues. The "explicit use" of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons and devices delivered by unmanned vehicles or missiles

We are already onto another generation of UAVs.
The MQ-9 Reaper (originally the RQ-9 Predator B) is an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) developed by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems for use by the United States Air Force and the U.S. Navy. The MQ-9 is the Air Force's first purpose-designed hunter-killer UAV designed for long endurance high altitude surveillance. The increase in power allows the Reaper to carry 15 times more ordnance and cruise at three times the speed of the MQ-1. (seven were deployed in 2006). Adding other kind of ordinance such biological or nuclear is trivial once you can carry larger more payload.

Technology
By 2035, an implantable "information chip" could be wired directly to the brain. A growing pervasiveness of information communications technology will enable states, terrorists or criminals, to mobilise "flashmobs", challenging security forces to match this potential agility coupled with an ability to concentrate forces quickly in a small area.


More flashmobs ? How about twitter.com ? (public SMS/IM messages)

Why does it have to be direct to the brain ? yes we are developing that capability but a good mobile device with a rich interface to the retina or just in your hand can do many of the same things (now). You just need a good systems architecture to leverage it.

Marxism reborn

I agree that there is large classes of target=blank>very wealthy and mass affluent emerging.

But what is this romanticism about an old, bad and unproductive idea from the past ?

Some scientific analysis on wealth distribution. It talks about understanding the processes to help the people who are unable to save or figure out how to manage finances.

Population and Resources
The global population is likely to grow to 8.5bn in 2035, with less developed countries accounting for 98% of that. Some 87% of people under the age of 25 live in the developing world. Demographic trends, which will exacerbate economic and social tensions, have serious implications for the environment - including the provision of clean water and other resources - and for international relations. The population of sub-Saharan Africa will increase over the period by 81%, and that of Middle Eastern countries by 132%.


How does 98% of the population growth of 2 billion from less developed countries? 2% of 2 billion is 40 million. This depends on how less developed is classified. If it is classified as those who are in what are currently considered developed countries then yes. But China by 2035 (especially in urban coastal areas I think would be considered developed.) That would add 100-200 million to growth in developed countries.

China has a growing middle class.
By 2025, 60% of the households should have US$17000-40000/year equivalent.
http://advancednano.blogspot.com/2006/06/economic-future-china-middle-class.html

By 2035, China will be full of what has traditionally considered
middle class. India will not be that far behind.

Islamic militancy targeted against China. / Terrorism
That would be a mistake for islamic militancy. China would not have political correctness or media concerns hampering tactics. Islamic militancy are the Crips/Blood getting onto the world stage. Murderous criminal groups with more of a story and a little better armed.

The original PDF from the UK think tank The actual pdf is not as bad as the Guardian summary article.

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