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March 28, 2007

Projecting future wealth





200620052004Wealth Amount
532US$30B+ Forbes list (which mainly catches owners
674932US$10B+ of public assets, can underestimate some
167124102US$5B+ like CTO of Cisco, who may be billionaire
946793691US$1B+ from cisco stock + large startup positions)
1000082007500US$160M+ (my own estimate)
(e)100K8540077500US$30M+ (UHNW, ultra high net worth class)
(e)1M820000745000US$5 to 30M
7.8M7.4M US$1-5M Global number, US number 33% (2.6 million)
8.7M8.2MUS$1M+ Global number, US number 33% ( 2.6 million)
~24M~22MUS$500K-1M doesn't include primary residence, (estimate)


The affluent class with over $1M (not including primary residence) is growing 8-11% each year.

This does not factor in global inflation of between 3-4% per year.
Plus the weakening dollar has increased the number of wealthy people who primarily have assets in other currencies.
This projection into the future of recent trends assumes that many things stay consistent. This will be less and less likely as time passes. However, it is a view of what happens if things stay roughly the consistent. Over longer time frames world growth rate has increased from past centuries. Radical improvements in technology and access to space resources would improve the overall wealth situation in most cases.

In 7-9 years most of the people in the 500K group will have moved up to the $1M+
11-16 years the people in the 500K group would mostly advance to the $1M+ level on an inflation adjusted basis.

In 20 years, expect 70 million millionaires worldwide. About 20 million in the US.

There will be 6000 to 26000 billionaires in 20 years (10% or 17% growth rate). (30-40 years on an inflation adjusted basis). A mid-range estimate is 15,000 billionaires in 2027.

Projecting farther into the future every 20-40 years a particular category of wealth will have about the same number as a lower category. 40 years for inflation adjusted, 30 years with more conservative growth and 20 years with optimistic growth.
So in 60 years, the $30M+ plus people or their descendents probably move up two spots to billionaire class. 80 years for inflation adjusted billionaire class.

Aggregate wealth of the top 200 wealthiest in the world has gone up 7 times over 20 years (Forbes).
There is a mass affluent group forming.

Household income distribution in the US is described in detail at wikipedia There are 113 million households.

The most wealth is not necessarily those with the most income. Someone with a lot of net worth could choose to not churn assets or draw large amounts of taxable income.

There was a large middle class in the US and a small wealthy class.
It is similar to what is happening now in China for a growing lower middle class which will be followed by the upper middle class becoming dominant demographically.

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