March 20, 2007

Exponential production and nanofactories

Exponential manufacturing is one of the key features that magnifies the impact of molecular nanotechnology Exponential manufacturing is a nanofactory being able to produce another nanofactory. Nanofactories with this capability can double their number in the time it takes to make another copy.

When would exponential manufacturing dominate over projected conventional production ?

A nanofactory could produce the equivalent of a wafer full of chips which is equivalent to the output of a multi-billion semiconductor fabrication factory. How many nanofactories would be needed to equal the roughly 50,000 wafers produced each month by a modern fab?
About 100 wafers per hour from the fab. So 100 personal nanofactories based on some rough estimates of projected performance. If it took 1 day to make another nanofactory then it would take 8 days to have nanofactories that equalled the production of the fab. If the production performance of the nanofactories were 10 times less, then it would take 1000 PN to equal the production rate and it would take 110 days to make the 1000 nanofactories at the 10 day per doubling rate.
If doubling performance of the nanofactory stayed higher than 100 days per doubling then the impact would not be as shocking and their would be time to adapt.

The molecularly precise nanofactory would produce higher quality and performance products.

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