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January 29, 2007

Optimistic conversion to hybrids and plugin hybrid cars

Total global car and truck sales in 2010 are expected to be 73 million which is up from 65 million in 2005. China had 4.1 million cars sold in 2006 and expects 8 million in 2007. The USA is making buying about 16.5 million cars and trucks.

Toyota is targeting sales of 1 million hybrids per year in 2010.
They are trying to achieve that goal sooner

If consumers keep snapping up hybrids and automakers begin to integrate the technology throughout their product lines - including pickup trucks - then hybrids might quickly reach 20 percent of new vehicle sales by 2010 and 80 percent by 2015 [of the US new car market], according to another Booz Allen Hamilton report. That's the most optimistic of three scenarios the management consulting firm laid out. In the "high adoption" scenario, hybrids would save 2 million barrels of gasoline a day by 2015; in the "medium adoption" scenario, 800,000 barrels of gasoline.

There are roughly 235 million cars and light trucks on the road in the US today. In 2002, there were 590 million passenger vehicles in the world. This could double by 2020. It will take another 10 years past the time almost all new cars are hyperefficient plugin hybrids before the installed base gets mostly replaced.

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